Global Carbon Budget 2025

Published: May 13, 2026

Citation: Friedlingstein et al., Global Carbon Budget 2025. https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-18-3211-2026

Data: Global Carbon Project. (2025). Supplemental data of Global Carbon Budget 2025 (Version 1.0) [Data set]. Global Carbon Project. https://doi.org/10.18160/gcp-2025

Changelog:
  • total anthropogenic CO₂ emissions of 11.6 ± 0.9 GtC/year (42.4 ± 3.2 GtCO₂/year)
  • 2024 fossil emissions increased by 1.1% relative to 2023 to 10.3 ± 0.5 GtC/year (including the cement carbonation sink, 0.2 GtC/year)
  • 2024 global atmospheric CO₂ concentration: 422.8 ± 0.1 ppm
  • remaining carbon budget for a 50 % likelihood to limit global warming to 1.5, 1.7, and 2 °C has been reduced to 50 GtC (170 GtCO₂), 145 GtC (525 GtCO₂) and 290 GtC (1055 GtCO₂)

Ocean CO2 sink (positive values represent a flux from the atmosphere to the ocean)

All values in billion tonnes of carbon per year (GtC/yr), for the globe. For values in billion tonnes of carbon dioxide per year (GtCO2/yr), multiply the numbers below by 3.664.
1 billion tonnes C = 1 petagram of carbon (10^15 gC) = 1 gigatonne C = 3.664 billion tonnes of CO2
Methods: The ocean sink (uncertainty of ±0.4 GtC/yr on average) is estimated from the average of 10 global ocean biogeochemistry models and 9 fCO2-products that reproduce the observed mean ocean sink of the 1990s. Cite as: Friedlingstein et al 2025 (see summary tab). The GCB adjusted column includes a 10% increase to GOBM estimates, as well as a 0.18 GtC/yr increase to fCO2 products for a skin temperature correction (JMA-MLR and UExP-FNN-U are not adusted as they already inlcude this effect).
Prior to 1990, the GCB ocean sink estimate is calculated from the GOBM multi-model mean with an offset applied. The offset is calculated as the half of the difference between GOBMs and data products in the period 1990-1999 (inclusive). This ensures no artificial jumps occur in 1990 when the data products are used to estimate the sink in conjunction with the GOBMs.
Note: the surface ocean fCO2-products are adjusted for a pre-industrial steady state source of CO2 from rivers (of 0.65 GtC/yr) to be comparable with the ocean model results and to satisfy the definition of the ocean carbon sink used in the Global Carbon Budget.
Cite individual estimates as:
Global ocean biogeochemical models:
  • ACCESS (CSIRO) Law, R. M., Ziehn, T., Matear, R. J., Lenton, A., Chamberlain, M. A., Stevens, L. E., Wang, Y.-P., Srbinovsky, J., Bi, D., Yan, H., and Vohralik, P. F.: The carbon cycle in the Australian Community Climate and Earth System Simulator (ACCESS-ESM1) - Part 1: Model description and pre-industrial simulation, Geosci. Model Dev., 10, 2567-2590, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-10-2567-2017, 2017.
  • CESM-ETHZ Doney, S. C., Lima, I., Feely, R. A., Glover, D. M., Lindsay, K., Mahowald, N., Moore, J. K., and Wanninkhof, R.: Mechanisms governing interannual variability in upper-ocean inorganic carbon system and air-sea CO2 fluxes: Physical climate and atmospheric dust, Deep-Sea Res. Pt. II, 56, 640-655, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.dsr2.2008.12.006, 2009.
  • FESOM-2.1-REcoM3 Gürses, Ö., Oziel, L., Karakuş, O., Sidorenko, D., Völker, C., Ye, Y., Zeising, M., Butzin, M., and Hauck, J.: Ocean biogeochemistry in the coupled ocean-sea ice-biogeochemistry model FESOM2.1-REcoM3, Geosci. Model Dev., 16, 4883-4936, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-4883-2023, 2023.
  • MICOM-HAMOCC (NorESM-OCv1.2) Schwinger, J., Goris, N., Tjiputra, J. F., Kriest, I., Bentsen, M., Bethke, I., Ilicak, M., Assmann, K. M., and Heinze, C.: Evaluation of NorESM-OC (versions 1 and 1.2), the ocean carbon-cycle stand-alone configuration of the Norwegian Earth System Model (NorESM1), Geosci. Model Dev., 9, 2589-2622, 2016.
  • MPIOM-HAMOCC6 Lacroix F., Tatiana Ilyina, Moritz Mathis, Goulven Laruelle, Pierre Regnier: Historical Increases in Land-Derived Nutrient Inputs May Alleviate Effects from a Changing Physical Climate on the Oceanic Carbon Cycle. Global Change Biology, https://doi.org/10.1111/gcb.15822, 2021
  • MRI-ESM2-4 Tsujino, H., Nakano, H., Sakamoto, K., Urakawa, L. S., Toyama, K., Kosugi, N., et al.: Impact of increased horizontal resolution of an ocean model on carbon circulation in the North Pacific Ocean. Journal of Advances in Modeling Earth Systems, 16, e2023MS003720. https://doi.org/10.1029/2023MS003720, 2024.
  • NEMO-PlankTOM12 Wright, R. M., Le Quéré, C., Buitenhuis, E., Pitois, S., & Gibbons, M. J.: Role of jellyfish in the plankton ecosystem revealed using a global ocean biogeochemical model. Biogeosciences, 18(4), 1291-1320. https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-18-1291-2021, 2021.
  • NEMO3.6-PISCESv2-gas (CNRM) Berthet, S., Séférian, R., Bricaud, C., Chevallier, M., Voldoire, A., & Ethé, C.: Evaluation of an online grid‐coarsening algorithm in a global eddy‐admitting ocean biogeochemical model. Journal of Advances in Modeling Earth Systems, 11, 1759- 1783. https://doi.org/10.1029/2019MS001644, 2019.
  • NEMO4.2-PISCES (IPSL) Aumont, O., Ethé, Tagliabue, A., Bopp, L., & Gehlen, M.: PISCES-v2: an ocean biogeochemical model for carbon and ecosystem studies, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmdd-8-1375-2015, 2015.
  • MOM6-COBALTv3 (Princeton) Stock, C. A., Dunne, J. P., Luo, J. Y., Ross,A. C., Van Oostende, N., Zadeh, N., et al.: Photoacclimation and photoadaptation sensitivity in a global ocean ecosystem model. Journal of Advances in Modeling Earth Systems, 17,e2024MS004701. https://doi.org/10.1029/2024MS004, 2025.
fCO₂-products:
  • CMEMS-LSCE-FFNNv2 Chau, T. T. T., Gehlen, M., and Chevallier, F.: A seamless ensemble-based reconstruction of surface ocean pCO2 and air-sea CO2 fluxes over the global coastal and open oceans, Biogeosciences, 19, 1087-1109, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-19-1087-2022, 2022.
  • JMA-MLR Iida, Y., Takatani, Y., Kojima, A., and Ishii, M.: Global trends of ocean CO2 sink and ocean acidification: an observation-based reconstruction of surface ocean inorganic carbon variables. J. Oceanogr. 77, 323-358. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10872-020-00571-5, 2021
  • LDEO-HPD Gloege, L., Yan, M., Zheng, T., and McKinley, G. A.: Improved Quantification of Ocean Carbon Uptake by Using Machine Learning to Merge Global Models and pCO2 Data, J. Adv. Model. Earth Syst., 14, e2021MS002620, https://doi.org/10.1029/2021MS002620, 2022.
  • VLIZ-SOMFFN Landschützer, P., Gruber, N., and Bakker, D. C. E.: Decadal variations and trends of the global ocean carbon sink: decadal air-sea CO2 flux variability, Global Biogeochem. Cycles, 30, 1396-1417, https://doi.org/10.1002/2015GB005359, 2016.
  • NIES-ML3 Zeng J, Iida Y, Matsunaga T and Shirai T: Surface ocean CO2 concentration and air-sea flux estimate by machine learning with modelled variable trends. Front. Mar. Sci. 9:989233. https://doi.org/10.3389/fmars.2022.989233, 2022.
  • OceanSODA-ETHZv2 Gregor, L., Shutler, J., & Gruber, N.: High-resolution variability of the ocean carbon sink. Global Biogeochemical Cycles, 38, e2024GB008127. https://doi.org/10.1029/2024GB008127, 2024.
  • UExP-FNN-U Ford, D. J., Blannin, J., Watts, J., Watson, A. J., Landschützer, P., Jersild, A., & Shutler, J. D.: A comprehensive analysis of air-sea CO2 flux uncertainties constructed from surface ocean data products. Global Biogeochemical Cycles, 38, e2024GB008188. https://doi.org/10.1029/2024GB008188, 2024.
  • Jena-MLS Rödenbeck, C., DeVries, T., Hauck, J., Le Quéré, C., and Keeling, R. F.: Data-based estimates of interannual sea-air CO2 flux variations 1957-2020 and their relation to environmental drivers, Biogeosciences, 19, 2627-2652, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-19-2627-2022, 2022.
  • CSIR-ML6 Gregor, L., Lebehot, A. D., Kok, S., and Scheel Monteiro, P. M.: A comparative assessment of the uncertainties of global surface ocean CO2 estimates using a machine-learning ensemble (CSIR-ML6 version 2019a) - have we hit the wall?, Geosci. Model Dev., 12, 5113-5136, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-12-5113-2019, 2019.

GCB

GCB

1960
1980
2000
2020
1.5
2
2.5
3
GtC

Unit GtC/year

YearGCB
19591.1151
19601.0837
19611.0249
19621.0693
19631.2665
19641.3662
19651.4556
19661.3756
19671.2211
19681.3578
19691.4700
19701.3474
19711.4362
19721.6430
19731.5935
19741.5350
19751.5229
19761.6417
19771.7107
19781.7039
19791.6561
19802.0119
19811.9401
19822.0266
19832.2137
19842.0831
19852.0281
19862.0459
19872.1102
19882.0710
19892.1162
19902.2033
19912.3563
19922.4956
19932.4470
19942.2953
19952.2827
19962.2733
19972.3820
19982.4416
19992.2343
20002.1911
20012.1016
20022.4900
20032.5915
20042.5747
20052.6233
20062.7212
20072.6965
20082.7149
20092.8338
20102.8332
20112.8672
20122.9063
20132.9549
20143.0821
20153.1683
20163.2876
20173.1233
20183.2147
20193.2423
20203.2433
20213.1446
20223.1205
20233.2754
20243.3889

Individual Models

ACCESS

1960
1980
2000
2020
1
1.5
2
2.5
3
GtC

CESM-ETHZ

1960
1980
2000
2020
1.2
1.4
1.6
1.8
2
2.2
2.4
2.6
GtC

CNRM

1960
1980
2000
2020
0.5
1
1.5
2
2.5
GtC

FESOM-REcoM

1960
1980
2000
2020
1
1.5
2
2.5
3
GtC

IPSL

1960
1980
2000
2020
1
1.5
2
2.5
GtC

MPIOM

1960
1980
2000
2020
1
1.5
2
2.5
GtC

MRI

1960
1980
2000
2020
1
1.2
1.4
1.6
1.8
2
2.2
2.4
2.6
GtC

NorESM

1960
1980
2000
2020
1
1.5
2
2.5
3
GtC

PlankTOM

1960
1980
2000
2020
0.8
1
1.2
1.4
1.6
1.8
2
2.2
2.4
GtC

Princeton

1960
1980
2000
2020
1
1.5
2
2.5
3
GtC

Multi-model mean

1960
1980
2000
2020
1
1.5
2
2.5
GtC

Model Spread (sd)

1960
1980
2000
2020
0.2
0.25
0.3
0.35
0.4
GtC

Unit GtC/year

YearACCESSCESM-ETHZCNRMFESOM-REcoMIPSLMPIOMMRINorESMPlankTOMPrincetonMulti-model meanModel Spread (sd)
19590.84391.36590.56491.14990.83670.73390.89401.01660.88730.83530.91280.2218
19600.82681.30790.45921.16390.82100.73520.92971.00740.72290.86900.88430.2384
19610.82001.15630.31131.02250.78970.70500.97250.95850.71830.85470.83090.2309
19620.92531.13370.43951.01890.77640.74760.97311.14010.70540.85190.87120.2147
19631.14081.25700.66121.16810.91670.89961.12431.32830.95131.05781.05050.1970
19641.19521.34400.84711.31591.08331.06261.07151.44210.90001.14981.14110.1898
19651.27801.41760.99861.22871.11061.16271.20591.62841.03451.15931.22240.1861
19661.20371.23290.97221.08031.10021.11001.10891.63530.92031.13331.14970.1945
19670.99481.00420.72860.98200.97371.00521.05911.45550.86151.02731.00920.1840
19681.30261.22260.69181.10341.11321.08511.16201.51190.95761.18481.13350.2142
19691.44941.27950.90191.10211.21161.09581.26861.60161.16071.28371.23550.1943
19701.25171.14750.71441.21381.19371.07220.96961.49070.93271.25401.12400.2140
19711.45851.33800.70151.27341.22601.21651.06491.54380.91431.31051.20470.2518
19721.66131.44221.17081.36501.28301.31291.40111.80311.26281.22581.39280.1990
19731.52321.41600.85921.36091.36581.34781.24181.85561.07331.43401.34780.2638
19741.49031.28330.79811.38001.31741.35461.28431.81020.91131.31621.29460.2808
19751.41051.26060.73681.31611.22551.41091.23601.75600.74691.73661.28360.3424
19761.66321.39940.98431.40751.32571.40741.36601.92051.17991.26201.39160.2553
19771.63661.38871.07691.43581.32211.54861.45982.01621.32491.33331.45430.2481
19781.64161.39951.11591.49301.38511.51011.43031.90061.23961.36531.44810.2148
19791.75101.28181.28141.37441.25751.24481.40171.79161.31681.34591.40470.1998
19801.95831.61401.63211.89431.61831.61361.56452.13351.51461.73851.72820.2013
19811.96091.55441.32831.83231.54991.60931.60042.08661.39101.71521.66280.2397
19822.18131.63311.48421.86481.60501.60081.64942.05921.63291.70381.74150.2230
19832.28161.77811.65972.02831.74351.72271.88122.29701.83391.88991.91160.2240
19841.96141.64291.50931.99791.79751.73161.61892.27311.57451.82161.79290.2325
19852.09001.64081.24661.89581.77671.71511.53352.24681.44551.83751.74280.2977
19862.05451.56801.47561.92811.73621.72241.65142.30791.37821.76801.75900.2774
19872.21161.62581.74891.85411.77081.66591.70042.22361.52581.84841.81750.2329
19882.04541.69641.30952.04771.84681.68951.56032.17781.45211.99281.78180.2872
19892.25781.59411.43191.88051.81841.79061.70812.28821.48591.97411.82300.2915
19902.30801.65411.55982.00821.78811.83131.76752.31191.59911.90611.87340.2671
19912.46911.84211.85692.10641.96361.81661.92912.34271.83502.06122.02230.2261
19922.60322.07811.93142.23912.11772.10051.96572.54572.00892.24242.18330.2304
19932.42271.95161.98272.28052.08862.03651.96812.54661.95352.18532.14160.2121
19942.26361.83701.47932.23452.05061.90231.75792.40971.76212.03821.97350.2812
19952.33881.77011.61842.22662.05161.89071.84072.31491.63802.19981.98900.2736
19962.23931.78041.64252.25522.05691.84401.82382.26781.69232.22161.98240.2515
19972.54171.77711.91552.12561.95051.75372.03982.30571.82782.12162.03590.2485
19982.51171.84281.85542.39932.11121.78931.96212.34531.88162.42342.11220.2812
19992.26171.69641.46412.20341.98881.93151.77302.45961.62072.20901.96080.3213
20002.27791.63901.49012.03151.89971.94211.74722.42241.46612.10531.90210.3205
20012.25991.64191.27071.88581.83761.80871.69362.32771.52922.11481.83700.3290
20022.69072.03061.84582.38092.11522.07812.09152.53631.96372.35312.20860.2694
20032.77352.15131.88092.36222.21402.11802.16852.69841.95102.53132.28490.3010
20042.83292.09261.81652.30082.18762.10402.09322.61312.00622.47222.25190.3065
20052.86002.16621.86922.44272.21042.10762.13532.62531.94872.55622.29210.3169
20062.91382.20341.86482.53292.30452.18012.25702.76122.13012.63622.37840.3230
20072.87142.16671.85152.71402.39402.18012.11212.65002.01612.62072.35770.3413
20082.88752.12411.78272.55712.35832.21702.25422.81442.05752.60672.36590.3490
20092.83712.16062.04932.54162.31332.15882.18162.65272.16122.44302.34990.2587
20102.79052.15271.97222.63042.35632.21962.25812.65752.01122.73632.37850.3037
20112.92992.20871.93752.86622.41312.30662.30272.82472.17032.67002.46300.3389
20122.99522.28462.09892.64102.45992.34582.35082.95362.13502.61042.48750.3109
20132.99312.30962.02292.81812.54092.42692.30322.96142.18952.70762.52730.3332
20143.15182.35052.33282.99672.61062.50902.45852.99302.33492.81232.65500.3097
20153.29692.48272.43663.03582.64372.54232.53413.10932.44952.86532.73960.3132
20163.19532.60742.43303.30962.85072.55622.52483.09922.46313.05612.80950.3322
20173.05012.40542.02502.96632.62212.43182.44223.01982.32592.98132.62700.3572
20183.25362.46292.32993.07512.67932.48982.51693.03642.34582.97042.71600.3379
20193.19642.43122.27802.98472.62112.43362.48043.03482.34552.98232.67880.3360
20203.24042.43102.34412.94052.66952.60082.46042.95572.28973.05392.69860.3293
20213.17812.32262.00722.88882.64162.65812.40833.10872.18423.04132.64390.4076
20223.19772.32702.03532.97442.61682.59572.43813.13312.18963.06392.65720.4153
20233.34662.39392.22192.92812.55422.55892.68503.33062.52722.95272.74990.3801
20243.41832.60362.59353.15712.77262.71242.56873.33902.51093.11502.87910.3438

fCO₂-products

CMEMS-LSCE-FFNN

1960
1980
2000
2020
1.8
2
2.2
2.4
2.6
2.8
3
3.2
GtC

CSIR-ML6

1960
1980
2000
2020
2
2.5
3
3.5
4
GtC

Jena-MLS

1960
1980
2000
2020
1
1.5
2
2.5
3
GtC

JMA-MLR

1960
1980
2000
2020
2.8
3
3.2
3.4
3.6
3.8
4
4.2
GtC

LDEO-HPD

1960
1980
2000
2020
1.5
2
2.5
3
GtC

NIES-ML3

1960
1980
2000
2020
2.2
2.4
2.6
2.8
3
3.2
GtC

OceanSODA-ETHZv2

1960
1980
2000
2020
2.2
2.3
2.4
2.5
2.6
2.7
2.8
2.9
3
GtC

UoEX-UEPFFNU (former called Watson)

1960
1980
2000
2020
2
2.5
3
3.5
GtC

VLIZ-SOMFFN

1960
1980
2000
2020
2
2.2
2.4
2.6
2.8
3
3.2
GtC

Average fCO2-products

1960
1980
2000
2020
2.2
2.4
2.6
2.8
3
3.2
3.4
GtC

sd fCO2-product

1960
1980
2000
2020
0.2
0.25
0.3
0.35
0.4
0.45
0.5
GtC

Unit GtC/year

YearCMEMS-LSCE-FFNNCSIR-ML6Jena-MLSJMA-MLRLDEO-HPDNIES-ML3OceanSODA-ETHZv2UoEX-UEPFFNU (former called Watson)VLIZ-SOMFFNAverage fCO2-productssd fCO2-product
1959--0.8342-1.2451------
1960--0.8473-1.2265------
1961--0.7009-1.1872------
1962--0.6961-1.1887------
1963--0.9384-1.4338------
1964--0.8978-1.5340------
1965--1.0857-1.5670------
1966--0.9266-1.4715------
1967--0.7680-1.3306------
1968--0.9339-1.5049------
1969--1.1043-1.5855------
1970--1.0484-1.4654------
1971--0.9826-1.5333------
1972--1.3369-1.7528------
1973--1.2141-1.7233------
1974--1.1627-1.6163------
1975--1.0375-1.5856------
1976--1.3240-1.7069------
1977--1.5376-1.8245------
1978--1.5184-1.7951------
1979--1.5954-1.8574------
1980--1.8885-2.1753------
1981--1.7185-2.1124------
1982--1.9339-2.2750------
1983--2.1266-2.4158------
1984--1.8928-2.3500------
1985--1.8874-2.2779------
1986--1.9667-2.3944------
1987--2.0821-2.4255------
1988--1.7094-2.2832------
1989--1.6205-2.2885------
19901.73791.78321.83203.11212.47282.17032.17732.31832.24962.20590.4252
19911.87181.92822.12343.13062.80682.27102.24672.39812.35632.34810.4024
19921.90292.00572.67143.02943.04292.20302.31212.45352.42572.44960.4052
19932.00201.98372.39502.98042.90412.19782.38392.23972.49802.39830.3534
19942.04841.99662.03602.90332.37422.19282.35872.22742.37952.27960.2778
19952.07071.97591.92832.96482.20282.22262.33662.19822.23832.23760.3028
19962.09652.01551.95402.89842.11042.27852.36062.16202.15812.22600.2807
19972.23542.11342.43922.93622.31972.34062.43742.30302.33472.38440.2294
19982.14592.07382.77072.97632.44452.52822.45692.26232.11942.41980.3075
19992.05221.96722.13562.84281.91572.46552.31541.98541.86462.17160.3181
20002.08572.07122.02692.67331.90832.37462.33931.99761.87262.15000.2608
20012.08452.05691.51222.61941.68492.28952.26622.00371.86542.04250.3331
20022.30992.34822.49222.80822.34802.55002.45822.23682.14302.41050.1956
20032.37482.43272.70073.05272.41672.61632.47402.37222.32712.52970.2306
20042.35762.51712.67112.97132.41212.60202.45112.43782.37102.53230.1948
20052.43222.61512.44403.01102.42522.65762.53492.65332.49462.58530.1843
20062.50142.75222.41083.10752.53642.77082.63382.82912.63292.68610.2084
20072.47202.74732.32663.04132.44312.72802.61842.85852.70052.65950.2219
20082.50032.84552.37512.97072.55552.70682.59082.90562.73552.68730.1984
20092.73543.08172.92733.09602.97372.76042.76713.16672.97582.94270.1590
20102.72673.05472.85423.11252.95032.70592.76823.13022.88762.91000.1624
20112.64103.15222.58783.05942.99672.70452.69553.20542.92362.88510.2331
20122.70783.20772.72083.10412.85572.76152.77523.26533.02922.93640.2180
20132.77263.33992.78293.25262.80552.90612.76593.29382.98862.98980.2411
20142.90123.48103.03323.34323.06932.87672.83303.34543.04943.10360.2327
20153.09343.55072.76293.53613.02963.00212.94033.48153.25003.18300.2857
20163.14553.69063.17253.79563.27213.33572.95963.49323.23753.34470.2692
20172.92713.50663.08863.71642.93433.15492.86653.52543.23293.21700.3033
20182.93763.65073.36683.79773.13783.16352.91313.59453.15503.30180.3179
20193.11593.80733.46963.96473.30903.18083.00893.55023.17423.39780.3266
20203.13633.85153.30324.09503.27893.09882.96443.58983.08543.37810.3859
20213.03013.82272.85444.04233.01132.93012.91313.55153.01323.24100.4443
20222.97843.88012.75803.87482.95052.88442.76983.60352.90263.17800.4685
20233.34764.13112.88054.00713.12003.04212.97743.76263.20523.38600.4648
20243.23914.23623.31014.22143.37073.21062.81493.97002.86503.47090.5423