Global Carbon Budget 2025

Published: May 13, 2026

Citation: Friedlingstein et al., Global Carbon Budget 2025. https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-18-3211-2026

Data: Global Carbon Project. (2025). Supplemental data of Global Carbon Budget 2025 (Version 1.0) [Data set]. Global Carbon Project. https://doi.org/10.18160/gcp-2025

Changelog:
  • total anthropogenic CO₂ emissions of 11.6 ± 0.9 GtC/year (42.4 ± 3.2 GtCO₂/year)
  • 2024 fossil emissions increased by 1.1% relative to 2023 to 10.3 ± 0.5 GtC/year (including the cement carbonation sink, 0.2 GtC/year)
  • 2024 global atmospheric CO₂ concentration: 422.8 ± 0.1 ppm
  • remaining carbon budget for a 50 % likelihood to limit global warming to 1.5, 1.7, and 2 °C has been reduced to 50 GtC (170 GtCO₂), 145 GtC (525 GtCO₂) and 290 GtC (1055 GtCO₂)

Land-use change emissions

All values in billion tonnes of carbon per year (GtC/yr), for the globe. For values in billion tonnes of carbon dioxide per year (GtCO2/yr), multiply the numbers below by 3.664.
1 billion tonnes C = 1 petagram of carbon (10^15 gC) = 1 gigatonne C = 3.664 billion tonnes of CO2
Methods: The GCB estimate is the average of three bookkeeping models BLUE, OSCAR, and LUCE (uncertainty of ±0.7 GtC/yr). Individual results from dynamic global vegetation models (calculated as S2-S3; see Supplementary S2.2 in Friedlingstein et al. 2025) are also provided but not used for the GCB estimate. Cite as: Friedlingstein et al (2025; see summary tab)
Data below represents the net flux of land-use change, based on the net balance between deforestation and forest regrowth along with other land-use changes
Cite individual estimates as:
  • BLUE Hansis, E., Davis, S. J., and Pongratz, J.: Relevance of methodological choices for accounting of land use change carbon fluxes, Global Biogeochemical Cycles, 29, 1230-1246, https://doi.org/10.1002/2014GB004997, 2015.
  • OSCAR Gasser, T., Crepin, L., Quilcaille, Y., Houghton, R. A., Ciais, P., and Obersteiner, M.: Historical CO 2 emissions from land use and land cover change and their uncertainty, Biogeosciences, 17, 4075–4101, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-17-4075-2020, 2020.
  • LUCE Qin, Z., Zhu, Y., Canadell, J. G., Chen, M., Li, T., Mishra, U., and Yuan, W.: Global spatially explicit carbon emissions from land-use change over the past six decades (1961-2020), One Earth, 7, 835-847, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.oneear.2024.04.002, 2024
  • FAO-PEAT Conchedda, G. and Tubiello, F. N.: Drainage of organic soils and GHG emissions: validation with country data, Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 12, 3113-3137, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-12-3113-2020, 2020. FAOSTAT Drained organic soils, available at (https://www.fao.org/faostat/en/#data/GV), 2024.
  • LPX-Bern-PEAT Müller, J. and Joos, F.: Committed and projected future changes in global peatlands - continued transient model simulations since the Last Glacial Maximum, Biogeosciences, 18, 3657-3687, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-18-3657-2021, 2021.
  • ORCHIDEE-PEAT Qiu, C., Ciais, P., Zhu, D., Guenet, B., Peng, S., Petrescu, A. M. R., Lauerwald, R., Makowski, D., Gallego-Sala, A. V., Charman, D. J., and Brewer, S. C.: Large historical carbon emissions from cultivated northern peatlands, Sci. Adv., 7, eabf1332, https://doi.org/10.1126/sciadv.abf1332, 2021.
  • CABLE-POP Haverd, V., Smith, B., Nieradzik, L., Briggs, P. R., Woodgate, W., Trudinger, C. M., Canadell, J. G., and Cuntz, M.: A new version of the CABLE land surface model (Subversion revision r4601) incorporating land use and land cover change, woody vegetation demography, and a novel optimisation-based approach to plant coordination of photosynthesis, Geosci. Model Dev., 11, 2995-3026, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-11-2995-2018, 2018.
  • CLASSIC Melton, J. R., Arora, V. K., Wisernig-cojoc, E., Seiler, C., Fortier, M. and Chan, E.: CLASSIC v1.0: the open-source community successor to the Canadian Land Surface Scheme ( CLASS ) and the Canadian Terrestrial Ecosystem Model ( CTEM ) - Part 1: Model framework and site-level performance, 2825-2850, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-13-2825-2020, 2020.
  • CLM6.0 Lawrence, D. M., Fisher, R. A., Koven,C. D., Oleson, K. W., Swenson, S. C.,Bonan, G., et al.: The Community Land Model version 5: Description of new features, benchmarking, and impact of forcing
  • CLM-FATES uncertainty. Journal of Advances in Modeling Earth Systems, 11, 4245-4287. https://doi.org/10.1029/2018MS001583, 2019.
  • DLEM Tian, H., G. Chen, C. Lu, X. Xu, D. J. Hayes, W. Ren, S. Pan, D.N. Huntzinger, S.C. Wofsy: North American terrestrial CO2 uptake largely offset by CH4 and N2O emissions: Toward a full accounting of the greenhouse gas budget, Climatic Change, 129:423-426, https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-014-1072-9, 2015
  • EDv3 Ma, L., Hurtt, G., Ott, L., Sahajpal, R., Fisk, J., Lamb, R., Tang, H., Flanagan, S., Chini, L., Chatterjee, A., and Sullivan, J.: Global evaluation of the Ecosystem Demography model (ED v3.0), Geosci. Model Dev., 15, 1971-1994, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-1971-2022, 2022.
  • ELM Yang, X., Thornton, P., Ricciuto, D., Wang, Y., and Hoffman, F.: Global evaluation of terrestrial biogeochemistry in the Energy Exascale Earth System Model (E3SM) and the role of the phosphorus cycle in the historical terrestrial carbon balance, Biogeosciences, 20, 2813-2836, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-20-2813-2023, 2023.
  • ELM-FATES Needham, J. et al.: Vertical canopy gradients of respiration drive plant carbonbudgets and leaf area index. New Phytologist (2025) 246: 144-157, https://doi.org/10.1111/nph.20423, 2025.
  • GDSTEM Felzer, B. S., & Jiang, M.: Effect of land use and land cover change in context of growth enhancements in the United States since 1700: Net source or sink? Journal of Geophysical Research:Biogeosciences, 123, 3439-3457. https://doi.org/10.1029/2017JG004378, 2018.
  • IBIS Xia JZ, Ren PY, Wang XH, Liu D, Chen XZ, Dan L, He B, He HL, Ju WM, Linag MQ, Lu XJ, Peng J, Qin ZC, Xia JZ, Zheng B, Wei J, Yue X, Yu GR, Piao SL, Yuan WP. 2024. The carbon budget of China: 1980-2021. Science Bulletin, 69, 114-124, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.scib.2023.11.016, 2023.
  • iMAPLE Yue, X., Zhou, H., Tian, C., Ma, Y., Hu, Y., Gong, C., Zheng, H., and Liao, H.: Development and evaluation of the interactive Model for Air Pollution and Land Ecosystems (iMAPLE) version 1.0, Geosci Model Dev, 17, 4621-4642, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-4621-2024, 2024.
  • ISAM Shu, S., Jain, A. K., Koven, C. D., and Mishra, U.: Estimation of Permafrost SOC Stock and Turnover Time Using a Land Surface Model With Vertical Heterogeneity of Permafrost Soils, Global Biogeochem. Cy., 34, e2020GB006585, https://doi.org/10.1029/2020GB006585, 2020.
  • JSBACH Reick, C. H., Gayler, V., Goll, D., Hagemann, S., Heidkamp, M., Nabel, J. E. M. S., Raddatz, T., Roeckner, E., Schnur, R., and Wilkenskjeld, S.: JSBACH 3 - The land component of the MPI Earth System Model: documentation of version 3.2, https://doi.org/10.17617/2.3279802, 2021.
  • JULES-ES Wiltshire, A.,Burke, E., Chadburn, S., Jones, C., Cox, P., Davies-Barnard, T., Friedlingstein, P., Harper, A., Liddicoat, S., Sitch, S., Zaehle, S.: JULES-CN: a coupled terrestrial carbon–nitrogen scheme (JULES vn5.1), https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-14-2161-2021, 2021.
  • LPJ-EOSIM Poulter, B., Frank, D. C., Hodson, E. L., and Zimmermann, N. E.: Impacts of land cover and climate data selection on understanding terrestrial carbon dynamics and the CO2 airborne fraction, Biogeosciences, 8, 2027-2036. https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-8-2027-2011, 2011
  • LPJ-GUESS Smith, B., Warlind, D., Arneth, A., Hickler, T., Leadley, P., Siltberg, J., and Zaehle, S.: Implications of incorporating N cycling and N limitations on primary production in an individual-based dynamic vegetation model, Biogeosciences, 11, 2027-2054, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-11-2027-2014, 2014.
  • LPJml Schaphoff, S., von Bloh, W., Rammig, A., Thonicke, K., Biemans, H., Forkel, M., Gerten, D., Heinke, J., Jägermeyr, J., Knauer, J., Langerwisch, F., Lucht, W., Müller, C., Rolinski, S., and Waha, K.: LPJmL4 - a dynamic global vegetation model with managed land - Part 1: Model description, Geosci. Model Dev., 11, 1343-1375, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-11-1343-2018, 2018.
  • LPX-Bern Lienert, S. and Joos, F.: A Bayesian ensemble data assimilation to constrain model parameters and land-use carbon emissions, Biogeosciences, 15, 2909-2930, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-15-2909-2018, 2018.
  • ORCHIDEEv3 Vuichard, N., Messina, P., Luyssaert, S., Guenet, B., Zaehle, S., Ghattas, J., Ipsl, L. and Paris-saclay, U.: Accounting for carbon and nitrogen interactions in the global terrestrial ecosystem model ORCHIDEE ( trunk version , rev 4999 ): multi-scale evaluation of gross primary production, , 4751-4779, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-12-4751-2019, 2019.
  • SDGVM Walker, A. P., Quaife, T., van Bodegom, P. M., De Kauwe, M. G., Keenan, T. F., Joiner, J., Lomas, M. R., MacBean, N., Xu, C. G., Yang, X. J., and Woodward, F. I.: The impact of alternative trait-scaling hypotheses for the maximum photosynthetic carboxylation rate (V-cmax) on global gross primary production, New Phytologist, 215, 1370-1386, https://doi.org/10.1111/nph.14623, 2017.
  • VISIT Kato, E., Kinoshita, T., Ito, A., Kawamiya, M. and Yamagata, Y.: Evaluation of spatially explicit emission scenario of land-use change and biomass burning using a process-based biogeochemical model, J. Land Use Sci., 8(1), 104-122, https://doi.org/10.1080/1747423x.2011.628705, 2013.
  • VISIT-UT Ito, A.: Disequilibrium of terrestrial ecosystem CO2 budget caused by disturbance-induced emissions and non-CO2 carbon export flows: a global model assessment, Earth Syst. Dynam., 10, 685-709, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-10-685-2019, 2019.

GCB

Net

1960
1970
1980
1990
2000
2010
2020
1.4
1.6
1.8
2
2.2
GtC

deforestation (total)

1960
1970
1980
1990
2000
2010
2020
1.7
1.8
1.9
2
2.1
2.2
GtC

forest regrowth (total)

1960
1970
1980
1990
2000
2010
2020
-1.3
-1.2
-1.1
-1
-0.9
GtC

other transitions

1960
1970
1980
1990
2000
2010
2020
0.05
0.1
0.15
0.2
0.25
0.3
0.35
0.4
GtC

peat drainage & peat fires

1960
1970
1980
1990
2000
2010
2020
0.2
0.3
0.4
0.5
0.6
0.7
GtC

wood harvest & other forest management

1960
1970
1980
1990
2000
2010
2020
0.36
0.38
0.4
0.42
0.44
0.46
0.48
0.5
GtC

Unit GtC/year

YearNetdeforestation (total)forest regrowth (total)other transitionspeat drainage & peat fireswood harvest & other forest management
19592.37252.1750−0.84850.44440.24220.3594
19602.07711.9466−0.85600.41890.19910.3685
19612.08251.9277−0.85870.39420.23470.3846
19621.94831.8841−0.86230.37290.16050.3930
19631.89771.8491−0.86550.33840.17710.3987
19641.81771.7963−0.86770.30880.17400.4062
19651.74271.7492−0.87260.28990.16220.4141
19661.61491.6732−0.87690.26280.13540.4204
19671.70591.6962−0.87480.29760.16260.4242
19681.72681.7124−0.87460.28990.16760.4316
19691.89431.8813−0.87860.26130.19480.4354
19701.82581.8294−0.88480.22560.21680.4389
19711.67561.7386−0.88260.22090.15650.4423
19721.75711.8075−0.88660.22420.16830.4437
19731.70691.7785−0.88850.21240.15920.4453
19741.72301.7676−0.88180.20180.18600.4495
19751.67131.7497−0.88440.20630.15620.4435
19761.65401.7218−0.88250.18950.17460.4506
19771.80681.8145−0.88510.24310.18320.4511
19781.79151.8019−0.88510.24130.17740.4559
19791.59821.6825−0.89100.19180.15300.4619
19801.63791.6951−0.88950.17780.18860.4660
19811.59301.6803−0.89050.18400.15400.4651
19821.50971.6247−0.89210.16070.15110.4653
19831.59381.6543−0.89400.19550.17420.4638
19841.75351.7654−0.88910.17870.22720.4713
19851.85251.8640−0.88960.16500.23880.4744
19861.89501.9057−0.89590.16460.24510.4756
19871.77351.8359−0.90420.14120.21800.4826
19881.68031.7503−0.90740.13210.21590.4895
19891.63231.6847−0.90860.13730.22030.4986
19901.59091.6569−0.93090.15730.19930.5082
19911.56121.6519−0.94520.14770.18760.5194
19921.62881.7049−0.95310.13980.23110.5061
19931.56481.6923−0.95920.12490.21890.4880
19941.82011.9575−0.97060.11490.24810.4702
19951.71341.9024−0.98560.10850.23190.4563
19961.78541.8980−0.98390.10890.31610.4463
19972.18881.9624−0.99420.06710.71790.4356
19981.85382.1278−1.01270.08280.22920.4266
19991.79092.0887−1.02040.06830.23030.4240
20001.67732.0215−1.03870.06510.19170.4378
20011.49041.9153−1.05540.02170.17690.4319
20021.66311.9537−1.07420.07730.27110.4352
20031.99812.2762−1.09310.13280.23410.4481
20041.75872.0409−1.09880.13960.21990.4571
20051.61881.9459−1.11340.10960.21900.4577
20061.64681.8705−1.13990.07470.37950.4620
20071.52651.8957−1.14650.09460.21220.4705
20081.62421.9395−1.14730.13420.22890.4689
20091.78351.9994−1.16150.14280.34690.4558
20101.77892.0400−1.20300.21470.25960.4674
20111.74472.0218−1.21330.19640.26200.4778
20121.82372.0647−1.21810.15880.31540.5029
20131.72482.0396−1.22450.15200.27660.4811
20141.74942.0471−1.24980.17160.31960.4610
20151.77751.9946−1.26100.14530.46250.4361
20161.46741.9437−1.27430.15250.22420.4213
20171.44861.9624−1.28430.15350.21480.4022
20181.33241.8834−1.28610.10230.21960.4132
20191.33381.8327−1.29880.10990.27470.4153
20201.23271.8429−1.30420.10280.17830.4130
20211.27101.8735−1.30810.08700.19660.4221
20221.30611.9067−1.31070.07830.20540.4264
20231.29521.8773−1.32100.07790.23600.4249
20241.25151.8718−1.32630.07650.21050.4190

Bookkeeping methods

BLUE

Net

1960
1970
1980
1990
2000
2010
2020
1.6
1.8
2
2.2
2.4
2.6
2.8
GtC

deforestation (total)

1960
1970
1980
1990
2000
2010
2020
1.8
2
2.2
2.4
2.6
GtC

forest regrowth (total)

1960
1970
1980
1990
2000
2010
2020
-1.4
-1.3
-1.2
-1.1
-1
GtC

other transitions

1960
1970
1980
1990
2000
2010
2020
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.4
GtC

wood harvest & other forest management

1960
1970
1980
1990
2000
2010
2020
0.5
0.55
0.6
0.65
0.7
0.75
GtC

BLUE - Unit GtC/year

YearNetdeforestation (total)forest regrowth (total)other transitionswood harvest & other forest management
19592.91302.7331−1.04350.48450.4968
19602.45112.3322−1.04510.45450.5103
19612.47792.3486−1.04350.40050.5376
19622.31002.2643−1.04250.37640.5513
19632.24292.2119−1.04250.33580.5606
19642.12082.1042−1.04090.31350.5700
19652.03152.0447−1.04380.29200.5765
19661.86901.9290−1.04250.26340.5837
19672.00411.9599−1.03930.32990.5910
19682.01171.9629−1.03480.31990.5961
19692.21092.1948−1.02790.25150.5977
19702.08172.1033−1.04100.20240.6002
19711.92852.0088−1.03710.19540.6049
19722.09262.1605−1.03350.18830.6090
19731.99872.0986−1.02850.15480.6145
19741.99022.0684−1.02260.14290.6155
19751.91352.0156−1.01860.14900.6112
19761.86561.9585−1.01250.12960.6154
19772.12442.1352−1.00610.19550.6167
19782.09582.1074−1.00360.19490.6196
19791.81781.8999−1.00590.14710.6238
19801.87541.9257−1.00110.13520.6270
19811.83241.8936−0.99940.15690.6274
19821.70151.8033−1.00110.12230.6259
19831.84441.8481−0.99380.18610.6298
19842.03841.9947−0.98690.16550.6379
19852.12082.0889−0.98340.13560.6408
19862.19372.1415−0.98190.14400.6450
19872.01442.0107−0.98310.11700.6518
19881.89561.9034−0.99070.10730.6596
19891.81901.7975−0.99330.12450.6700
19901.73881.7243−1.02780.16280.6802
19911.66271.6989−1.05430.14800.6826
19921.78011.7809−1.06130.15320.6762
19931.68721.7527−1.06880.12500.6594
19942.02752.0843−1.08110.12260.6536
19951.90221.9870−1.09870.13410.6479
19961.96431.9938−1.09790.12070.6314
19972.36722.0585−1.10550.07030.6260
19982.09562.2632−1.12000.09830.6249
19991.99922.2058−1.14160.08070.6240
20001.87922.1280−1.17290.08510.6474
20011.63021.9581−1.19530.04310.6473
20021.82861.9937−1.21390.12720.6504
20032.25302.3912−1.23380.19740.6641
20041.95992.1034−1.23260.20660.6626
20051.79211.9904−1.24780.17460.6559
20061.78441.8939−1.27800.13320.6558
20071.66951.9320−1.27670.13680.6653
20081.78561.9955−1.27190.17100.6620
20091.98622.0795−1.28270.19070.6518
20101.97932.1206−1.35190.29430.6567
20111.88882.0590−1.35860.26420.6622
20121.99492.1346−1.35110.21930.6767
20131.93302.0964−1.35430.21260.7017
20141.95922.1201−1.38440.22240.6814
20151.99322.0192−1.38320.18770.7071
20161.69611.9421−1.39980.19200.7376
20171.70441.9929−1.41160.19170.7166
20181.56221.8759−1.40500.12840.7433
20191.54141.7915−1.41500.13300.7572
20201.43911.7943−1.41480.12660.7546
20211.42691.8106−1.42370.09620.7472
20221.46791.8503−1.42610.08630.7520
20231.45171.8056−1.42500.09040.7447
20241.41111.8001−1.42400.09000.7346

OSCAR

Net

1960
1970
1980
1990
2000
2010
2020
1.2
1.4
1.6
1.8
2
GtC

deforestation (total)

1960
1970
1980
1990
2000
2010
2020
1.7
1.8
1.9
2
2.1
2.2
2.3
GtC

forest regrowth (total)

1960
1970
1980
1990
2000
2010
2020
-1.4
-1.2
-1
-0.8
GtC

other transitions

1960
1970
1980
1990
2000
2010
2020
0.1
0.15
0.2
0.25
0.3
0.35
0.4
GtC

wood harvest & other forest management

1960
1970
1980
1990
2000
2010
2020
0.06
0.08
0.1
0.12
0.14
GtC

OSCAR- Unit GtC/year

YearNetdeforestation (total)forest regrowth (total)other transitionswood harvest & other forest management
19591.85101.7645−0.67460.42630.0926
19601.76631.7427−0.69310.41790.0996
19611.74321.7020−0.69790.40360.1008
19621.64441.7083−0.71050.38160.1045
19631.62801.7078−0.71890.35640.1056
19641.58021.6983−0.72760.32370.1118
19651.52031.6798−0.73750.29900.1168
19661.44041.6537−0.75270.28590.1180
19671.43771.6311−0.75270.28540.1113
19681.45351.6448−0.76040.28290.1187
19691.54391.7157−0.77750.28950.1214
19701.61271.7499−0.78070.30810.1186
19711.49471.6895−0.78100.31100.1187
19721.47411.6748−0.79900.31070.1194
19731.47931.6965−0.81410.32440.1133
19741.51781.6834−0.80540.33120.1227
19751.48891.6961−0.81930.34320.1127
19761.49321.6818−0.82450.33790.1234
19771.50891.7037−0.84250.34470.1199
19781.51421.7185−0.84780.34170.1244
19791.42881.6978−0.86480.31420.1285
19801.43381.6927−0.86800.29060.1298
19811.39671.7017−0.87340.29130.1231
19821.36481.6856−0.87810.28010.1261
19831.38441.7155−0.89310.26950.1182
19841.48931.7594−0.88710.25890.1308
19851.57841.8314−0.89210.26320.1372
19861.62111.8860−0.90690.26850.1283
19871.57711.8981−0.93050.25790.1336
19881.54321.8857−0.93080.24160.1308
19891.51071.8684−0.93050.22050.1319
19901.49261.9082−0.95420.20190.1373
19911.48161.9122−0.96330.19260.1525
19921.49011.9041−0.97440.17700.1522
19931.48521.9382−0.98610.16490.1493
19941.57902.0407−1.00090.15680.1344
19951.59072.1075−1.01910.14570.1247
19961.67402.1104−1.01570.12630.1370
19972.08412.1526−1.03800.12880.1229
19981.65002.2352−1.06980.14430.1110
19991.69332.2636−1.06370.15400.1091
20001.60932.2359−1.07770.14690.1126
20011.51622.2057−1.10100.12890.1056
20021.57882.2133−1.12950.12980.0942
20031.62032.2969−1.15430.14330.1004
20041.59192.2973−1.17620.14180.1091
20051.47422.2247−1.20130.12480.1071
20061.61772.2195−1.22180.13160.1088
20071.43132.2288−1.24340.13270.1009
20081.47872.2542−1.25130.13980.1071
20091.60052.2856−1.28130.15720.0921
20101.60492.3501−1.30160.20200.0948
20111.59832.3563−1.31090.19080.1002
20121.58232.3476−1.33720.14710.1093
20131.53732.3653−1.35350.13420.1148
20141.56692.3672−1.38150.15050.1110
20151.65752.3775−1.41700.14150.0930
20161.36742.3622−1.43210.12750.0855
20171.33542.3460−1.44160.12520.0911
20181.29802.3300−1.45840.11040.0963
20191.29852.3141−1.48430.09870.0954
20201.16952.3196−1.50230.09450.0794
20211.20022.3329−1.50530.08920.0868
20221.21482.3550−1.51160.08450.0816
20231.21132.3685−1.54580.08020.0723
20241.15012.3685−1.56500.07690.0593

LUCE

Net

1960
1970
1980
1990
2000
2010
2020
1.2
1.4
1.6
1.8
2
2.2
GtC

deforestation (total)

1960
1970
1980
1990
2000
2010
2020
1.4
1.5
1.6
1.7
1.8
1.9
2
2.1
GtC

forest regrowth (total)

1960
1970
1980
1990
2000
2010
2020
-0.95
-0.9
-0.85
-0.8
GtC

other transitions

1960
1970
1980
1990
2000
2010
2020
-0.1
0
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.4
GtC

wood harvest & other forest management

1960
1970
1980
1990
2000
2010
2020
0.4
0.45
0.5
0.55
0.6
0.65
0.7
GtC

LUCE- Unit GtC/year

YearNetdeforestation (total)forest regrowth (total)other transitionswood harvest & other forest management
19592.35342.0274−0.82730.42230.4889
19602.01401.7651−0.82990.38420.4955
19612.02631.7325−0.83470.37850.5153
19621.89031.6797−0.83390.36080.5232
19631.82241.6275−0.83500.32300.5298
19641.75201.5864−0.83460.28930.5368
19651.67641.5231−0.83640.27870.5490
19661.53541.4369−0.83550.23910.5595
19671.67601.4977−0.83230.27760.5704
19681.71531.5294−0.82870.26700.5801
19691.92801.7333−0.83030.24290.5873
19701.78291.6349−0.83270.16620.5977
19711.60361.5176−0.82970.15620.6031
19721.70471.5873−0.82720.17370.6027
19731.64291.5404−0.82280.15810.6080
19741.66101.5511−0.81750.13130.6102
19751.61141.5373−0.81530.12670.6064
19761.60321.5252−0.81060.10110.6128
19771.78701.6046−0.80670.18920.6167
19781.76431.5799−0.80400.18720.6237
19791.54811.4497−0.80220.11420.6334
19801.60461.4668−0.79950.10750.6412
19811.54981.4456−0.79850.10390.6449
19821.46281.3852−0.79710.07970.6439
19831.55281.3993−0.79510.13080.6435
19841.73271.5421−0.79340.11150.6453
19851.85851.6716−0.79320.09610.6451
19861.87021.6895−0.79890.08110.6535
19871.72891.5987−0.79910.04890.6624
19881.60211.4616−0.80070.04720.6781
19891.56731.3883−0.80200.06670.6940
19901.54131.3381−0.81050.10730.7072
19911.53931.3445−0.81820.10240.7230
19921.61621.4298−0.82360.08910.6899
19931.52191.3860−0.82280.08470.6551
19941.85381.7475−0.82990.06540.6227
19951.64741.6125−0.83900.04580.5962
19961.71801.5897−0.83820.07980.5706
19972.11491.6762−0.83930.00210.5580
19981.81581.8851−0.84830.00590.5439
19991.68021.7966−0.8560−0.02970.5390
20001.54351.7006−0.8654−0.03670.5533
20011.32471.5820−0.8700−0.10690.5426
20021.58201.6540−0.8792−0.02500.5611
20032.12112.1406−0.89120.05770.5799
20041.72431.7222−0.88770.07040.5995
20051.58991.6226−0.89120.02950.6101
20061.53821.4981−0.9199−0.04080.6213
20071.47891.5262−0.91940.01430.6455
20081.60831.5688−0.91880.09180.6376
20091.76381.6332−0.92040.08050.6235
20101.75251.6495−0.95540.14800.6508
20111.74691.6500−0.97040.13430.6710
20121.89401.7119−0.96610.11000.7228
20131.70401.6571−0.96580.10920.6268
20141.72221.6540−0.98370.14180.5905
20151.68171.5872−0.98280.10660.5082
20161.33871.5269−0.99110.13780.4408
20171.30611.5483−0.99950.14380.3988
20181.13711.4442−0.99490.06820.4001
20191.16161.3926−0.99720.09790.3934
20201.08941.4147−0.99570.08730.4049
20211.18601.4769−0.99530.07570.4322
20221.23541.5148−0.99460.06400.4457
20231.22261.4579−0.99210.06290.4578
20241.19331.4469−0.98980.06270.4631

Peat drainage & Peat fires

FAO

1960
1970
1980
1990
2000
2010
2020
0.2
0.3
0.4
0.5
0.6
0.7
GtC

LPX-Bern

1960
1970
1980
1990
2000
2010
2020
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.4
0.5
0.6
GtC

ORCHIDEE

1960
1970
1980
1990
2000
2010
2020
0.2
0.3
0.4
0.5
0.6
0.7
GtC

Unit GtC/year

YearFAOLPX-BernORCHIDEE
19590.14310.33770.2457
19600.14310.24700.2073
19610.14310.34010.2210
19620.14310.12820.2103
19630.14310.17590.2121
19640.14310.15300.2260
19650.14310.14650.1969
19660.14310.06450.1987
19670.14310.13570.2089
19680.14310.15830.2014
19690.14310.24090.2003
19700.14310.28910.2181
19710.14310.11740.2089
19720.14310.15720.2045
19730.14310.14110.1935
19740.14310.20510.2097
19750.14310.12830.1971
19760.14310.17550.2051
19770.14310.20760.1988
19780.14310.19560.1936
19790.14310.13030.1855
19800.14310.23200.1906
19810.15200.11010.1998
19820.16090.10610.1862
19830.16980.13210.2206
19840.17870.23780.2651
19850.18760.25360.2753
19860.19650.24830.2904
19870.20540.17840.2700
19880.21430.15150.2819
19890.22320.14960.2881
19900.23210.09460.2712
19910.23490.07810.2497
19920.23760.17210.2836
19930.24050.15230.2638
19940.24310.20470.2965
19950.24740.17070.2776
19960.24990.43280.2657
19970.73950.64600.7681
19980.21650.21190.2593
19990.22640.21750.2470
20000.21260.13790.2245
20010.22400.08650.2203
20020.30890.19090.3135
20030.23400.21200.2563
20040.26590.11470.2791
20050.25100.13260.2733
20060.39400.31590.4286
20070.21900.16940.2483
20080.21980.20080.2663
20090.32030.36410.3564
20100.22030.31330.2453
20110.25690.22210.3069
20120.25730.37990.3090
20130.24570.28130.3027
20140.32440.26920.3653
20150.42480.50650.4561
20160.22880.21040.2335
20170.22560.18620.2325
20180.24220.16550.2511
20190.31710.19480.3124
20200.22820.07850.2283
20210.22810.12320.2384
20220.22700.16510.2241
20230.25410.20350.2504
20240.22860.17800.2248

Individual models (NET) - Does not include peat emissions

CABLE-POP

1960
1970
1980
1990
2000
2010
2020
0.8
1
1.2
1.4
1.6
1.8
2
GtC

CLASSIC

1960
1970
1980
1990
2000
2010
2020
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1
1.2
GtC

CLM-FATES

1960
1970
1980
1990
2000
2010
2020
1
1.2
1.4
1.6
1.8
2
2.2
GtC

CLM6.0

1960
1970
1980
1990
2000
2010
2020
1.2
1.4
1.6
1.8
2
2.2
2.4
GtC

DLEM

1960
1970
1980
1990
2000
2010
2020
1.6
1.8
2
2.2
2.4
2.6
2.8
3
GtC

ED

1960
1970
1980
1990
2000
2010
2020
1.6
1.8
2
2.2
2.4
GtC

ELM

1960
1970
1980
1990
2000
2010
2020
0.5
1
1.5
2
GtC

ELM-FATES

1960
1970
1980
1990
2000
2010
2020
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1
1.2
1.4
GtC

GDSTEM

1960
1970
1980
1990
2000
2010
2020
0.5
1
1.5
2
2.5
GtC

IBIS

1960
1970
1980
1990
2000
2010
2020
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1
1.2
1.4
1.6
1.8
GtC

iMAPLE

1960
1970
1980
1990
2000
2010
2020
0
0.5
1
1.5
2
2.5
3
3.5
GtC

ISAM

1960
1970
1980
1990
2000
2010
2020
1
1.2
1.4
1.6
1.8
2
2.2
2.4
2.6
2.8
GtC

JSBACH

1960
1970
1980
1990
2000
2010
2020
0.6
0.8
1
1.2
1.4
GtC

JULES

1960
1970
1980
1990
2000
2010
2020
1
1.2
1.4
1.6
1.8
GtC

LPJ-EOSIM

1960
1970
1980
1990
2000
2010
2020
0.4
0.6
0.8
1
1.2
1.4
1.6
1.8
2
GtC

LPJ-GUESS

1960
1970
1980
1990
2000
2010
2020
0.4
0.6
0.8
1
1.2
1.4
1.6
1.8
GtC

LPJml

1960
1970
1980
1990
2000
2010
2020
0.8
1
1.2
1.4
1.6
1.8
GtC

LPX

1960
1970
1980
1990
2000
2010
2020
0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1
1.2
GtC

Orchidee

1960
1970
1980
1990
2000
2010
2020
0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1
1.2
GtC

SDGVM

1960
1970
1980
1990
2000
2010
2020
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1
1.2
1.4
1.6
GtC

VISIT

1960
1970
1980
1990
2000
2010
2020
0.8
1
1.2
1.4
1.6
1.8
GtC

VISIT-UT

1960
1970
1980
1990
2000
2010
2020
-0.5
0
0.5
1
1.5
GtC

MMM (multi-model mean)

1960
1970
1980
1990
2000
2010
2020
1
1.2
1.4
1.6
GtC

Model Spread (sd)

1960
1970
1980
1990
2000
2010
2020
0.45
0.5
0.55
0.6
0.65
0.7
0.75
GtC

Unit GtC/year

YearCABLE-POPCLASSICCLM-FATESCLM6.0DLEMEDELMELM-FATESGDSTEMIBISiMAPLEISAMJSBACHJULESLPJ-EOSIMLPJ-GUESSLPJmlLPXOrchideeSDGVMVISITVISIT-UTMMM (multi-model mean)Model Spread (sd)
19592.05691.12541.20662.19823.10122.25211.95441.51082.29441.61342.23412.41641.00011.45702.17231.78051.93171.18571.09761.48251.81650.96601.76610.5538
19601.65171.31791.03232.24403.08542.47311.06670.92132.66941.82663.63412.84360.72641.44231.38491.75871.84981.28501.19671.64111.36351.55171.77120.7563
19611.21570.97170.96301.71442.87232.03731.52121.46191.65421.33940.69241.83820.72731.48691.60141.41511.33070.86791.04131.34791.42390.35681.35820.5269
19621.62720.74031.19741.80792.35462.14271.17171.25781.71111.19621.06751.86920.80661.32301.38101.33141.52320.89130.99901.05881.43430.05401.31570.5009
19631.87880.77531.24951.77092.15172.20841.51851.35462.32071.24090.97321.92200.97871.24881.22150.97981.41230.34340.97080.81231.34640.07141.30680.5763
19641.50690.54751.09341.74352.02102.15571.14020.68911.29470.88980.48831.56071.00461.08011.15861.10991.68570.69700.94210.98001.35430.12841.14870.4977
19651.43311.06511.03641.75732.02432.09131.57340.54161.70551.22440.66551.38361.18321.46111.13681.27031.39580.91620.87400.91891.46490.15431.23990.4651
19661.34240.52201.19111.55632.15202.01091.26100.74311.37661.03860.64031.52960.81731.42630.99020.99841.62210.21390.75560.61721.2738−0.02391.09340.5383
19671.54430.75931.25701.46691.98161.89301.18240.71711.02030.93640.15211.33560.71641.15321.13071.15531.04900.45300.75780.43921.4492−0.08811.02100.5138
19681.57460.54971.20341.51922.15712.25901.32830.69891.66151.09331.06361.77360.98071.14230.88191.07101.30810.29110.71220.58371.0686−0.01921.13190.5593
19691.11240.82841.38111.61772.23701.93811.89780.76391.10791.25341.37321.58821.31071.43841.39341.39191.57060.48650.81131.31611.74700.23691.30920.4762
19701.33871.15981.43351.98382.12942.01471.18470.85211.81991.26321.82141.97961.12161.74501.60031.57211.72010.90970.91881.57291.52680.43261.45910.4426
19711.07400.84881.30311.65262.31072.18160.84810.57011.08861.24630.85931.59980.97391.29381.35621.42911.01830.77240.63720.99191.18370.27531.15980.4828
19721.86610.82761.34601.60922.01972.14621.45570.63411.74711.18920.35511.32701.43351.45191.18701.11021.53430.60600.61690.33881.32960.04481.18980.5680
19731.01820.66541.20451.70882.10831.89411.48750.95620.93300.95710.68621.72891.06661.64091.28581.18810.83100.70130.72570.94371.53880.31631.16300.4609
19740.74190.33301.49141.34822.25841.87770.46550.75811.33981.01280.28061.53610.53441.08421.06631.40700.79080.31550.53870.15490.8860−0.41140.90040.6216
19751.56140.61191.46351.70902.24282.16181.12030.91322.14421.09360.66161.48930.92611.31821.09060.96601.40380.05700.55001.05581.0618−0.20811.15430.6205
19761.57970.62791.39441.56372.39472.06880.95880.66951.65270.93070.55221.38550.91341.08230.81670.97131.26090.41280.53640.48670.9256−0.20331.04460.5886
19771.48540.77721.44661.70192.04211.94561.59890.57360.83381.05220.57861.24481.09151.31231.16670.79361.2131−0.00910.30060.98451.3385−0.04191.06500.5607
19781.04360.55331.60591.77332.47001.78951.14370.37941.41241.14441.09731.77930.58681.42851.24341.58321.28800.84700.59990.85521.2817−0.08681.17360.5692
19791.16681.00731.25031.77052.42422.07941.46770.55241.82181.22041.10851.72791.12081.68560.91311.26151.92550.76770.54941.14171.22950.03031.28280.5559
19801.60841.24811.02861.67152.26312.15711.74560.61961.33701.05160.42961.13631.06361.59951.27090.76491.79810.94630.37531.05921.64960.22991.22970.5502
19811.05510.45171.24741.65172.08512.09931.19430.51930.84971.05000.66901.38821.03911.47991.17321.25201.01180.65810.27340.69491.15230.14841.05200.5109
19821.52740.69821.26551.60702.10801.85621.02050.26521.69591.04130.60011.24421.17451.57381.08971.37621.75430.57700.52170.76141.2528−0.00921.13640.5447
19831.42681.17700.99071.79672.08011.92501.69920.52641.01140.94290.40101.28291.39831.88281.22450.73851.40171.26040.26180.97871.76120.36211.20590.5305
19841.84130.56291.18421.47952.12341.78091.32560.61040.55300.78590.76041.53261.11261.50521.13321.01201.27990.51550.13010.42871.2464−0.11961.03560.5710
19851.01230.58651.41431.64591.91441.83981.25060.47571.42701.04710.95031.45570.77891.68151.27891.38961.20520.76480.32961.05931.42460.02261.13430.4911
19861.55740.52441.53872.09602.26892.07371.39710.36782.35161.38001.12281.46951.02871.64951.20751.44501.50300.99640.39751.02281.28050.07221.30690.6057
19871.81151.20901.43752.38742.20392.16051.76480.59471.52501.25861.12281.57391.37461.90961.04121.19901.68190.98970.38931.22891.38290.45761.39570.5322
19881.64770.66921.69031.95212.04892.05091.58060.57760.27421.07690.72261.40871.01351.48821.19850.65251.43730.57830.32320.71861.49930.37281.13550.5754
19891.25500.07311.86701.54632.41811.99950.76790.24241.22520.97170.28421.37161.14971.31060.66671.02751.13750.08900.16680.60740.9366−0.22130.94970.6790
19901.26770.74641.71031.56542.16051.52330.95430.29341.70010.94030.50661.30380.99821.55720.87361.33961.67710.24770.19190.95121.0822−0.13061.06640.5864
19911.34580.76161.26881.66392.05151.62691.16030.30450.62091.03400.20221.36430.78661.27341.06521.16921.39460.60630.28950.57111.1881−0.07510.98520.5323
19921.49500.74451.26021.28482.06131.92011.71140.12521.69700.89070.40761.32261.24511.40490.91741.10831.43420.86460.54270.42301.51400.22991.11840.5432
19930.95310.79421.43861.60402.18471.78881.26100.00570.84280.75450.71851.50300.90081.36920.82471.45251.38350.71930.27490.52391.17480.02651.02270.5533
19941.39371.01331.40191.69411.77221.72121.81880.75111.21381.01000.62311.23810.97831.42561.51800.86561.40820.37700.25260.74961.48520.07751.12680.5009
19951.39741.16331.42142.14832.25391.94251.47020.68812.31011.30792.00322.10921.25211.58911.05811.27201.57940.81701.08071.19681.43030.36051.44780.5161
19961.40530.81001.52581.58382.14811.83640.84110.42141.64230.94631.00571.62461.14901.37800.92191.37571.43520.55290.30180.65331.18850.17641.13290.5180
19971.24180.78021.76481.89012.14611.78111.15800.42681.57980.93971.45421.79570.97621.36150.75061.05570.97530.41410.47700.37861.19390.13251.12150.5609
19981.27961.28431.69662.13851.89112.13931.77810.75691.24591.18691.35471.96461.58621.65481.34731.06731.48830.33410.72840.81281.45490.20091.33600.5300
19991.98680.76171.67882.03702.33281.99481.08460.35162.01231.18682.02372.19631.31101.37400.96921.09511.31370.39291.24040.88871.12680.06041.33730.6354
20001.33190.79451.61931.96102.49422.02041.22730.15782.10531.21651.33862.14201.26411.32720.73441.03150.97480.38580.87510.43891.0530−0.03431.20270.6657
20011.46421.04681.51511.92562.14582.00821.77070.22181.78431.21020.95641.77221.28361.47670.87021.16691.93780.31280.72560.61930.88230.05191.23400.6078
20021.70871.03251.37501.70291.54821.98072.15410.38531.56130.81410.68541.10391.48001.56411.04660.84561.48910.32100.45530.53321.26810.29451.15230.5529
20031.08470.86241.70631.50991.89162.17992.42900.52300.93500.86241.32701.61801.51261.36111.36810.95281.31071.05390.49300.70111.4939−0.00131.23520.5673
20041.34521.15101.59072.41562.19611.92611.27280.22352.63541.24752.22022.44371.15311.27750.84451.94541.55531.05741.04681.35330.88010.07051.44780.6794
20051.39711.07451.47142.09612.05202.20621.53370.33071.89450.95970.90401.59701.29931.34350.86390.83761.73670.51110.50511.24041.12530.36201.24280.5568
20061.23690.61831.58351.66952.11472.04931.54770.25460.95930.86840.86221.66491.14281.12360.74620.89481.22480.23380.18750.49451.0693−0.12041.01940.6010
20071.03810.91011.56751.55061.93181.81231.50110.51081.47510.67060.54001.64921.18601.23440.76420.91721.45610.23310.23840.37620.9812−0.10631.01990.5671
20081.47730.42621.52631.76732.09451.78871.63940.25691.60340.69610.55791.72591.30061.32251.08371.09271.04960.72610.27630.62151.0814−0.24901.08480.6073
20090.85740.90041.80971.86372.26591.80631.90770.63781.84780.92911.06822.04861.20441.33130.73621.34841.21920.67730.24610.73681.0725−0.11901.19980.6164
20100.91841.15581.66731.92542.30781.93772.26400.95541.19651.07761.45732.31161.15541.29220.72980.95530.92250.57830.16860.63921.1369−0.03231.21460.6458
20111.46410.68731.87101.87292.33061.89141.31380.65182.33720.91611.65962.46850.98711.29980.59781.83961.28280.36020.08320.64230.7328−0.12191.23490.7412
20121.98991.16241.81641.74102.04092.10042.10380.84672.06020.81060.61451.67811.32601.45040.88960.38751.69770.05410.42630.55900.91570.08301.21610.6883
20130.83851.11281.81811.76641.86751.82771.80770.50101.10960.65650.94581.68151.14011.53860.94981.38671.09490.4333−0.11361.47261.04170.02571.13190.5796
20140.75040.99382.26851.83522.26291.65011.69550.59611.90560.74520.35051.88531.08061.39020.69521.70391.54550.64790.17840.39360.6935−0.23541.13780.7084
20151.36451.33811.92551.97401.93321.94582.08120.93701.95960.56620.79681.60431.29541.34000.72301.22291.69220.98620.15960.75390.7697−0.04251.24210.6146
20161.12421.04191.87631.60141.82701.79541.84300.67051.05620.45220.25701.42551.13150.93020.71990.84731.58950.57960.09360.73151.26110.20811.04830.5565
20171.12030.86542.05881.37481.82731.54071.15660.58400.73050.69450.04091.42070.75161.27650.89521.57701.39980.5851−0.01050.28030.7072−0.26730.93680.6051
20181.16520.66362.18631.48131.79392.05421.20080.47581.95020.50460.30511.49730.79791.26710.61361.24121.12710.58730.40340.47120.8805−0.31471.01600.6397
20191.24730.88002.02911.54321.92271.80581.57661.32122.15960.17980.12390.96060.73660.99290.55300.93711.22630.56160.24130.50400.6194−0.17400.99760.6552
20201.00220.69532.00811.36231.92201.56811.11030.15681.22610.4158−0.03431.36320.79220.92660.68970.67321.41630.5971−0.01250.30941.0099−0.40350.85430.6295
20211.09020.65522.07571.29861.90951.73801.34700.28721.01740.5576−0.10591.35871.07801.05410.74270.59531.14140.4773−0.07710.45840.7263−0.40730.86450.6384
20221.35600.11922.15251.12451.92231.71751.33940.67801.98460.3320−0.17171.48170.90180.99070.69761.17391.41220.43630.41000.54880.9497−0.54940.95490.7031
20231.91780.86321.79951.54211.86141.93901.77310.43762.08380.49200.39291.47151.03001.08080.37180.87221.50820.18380.48520.30130.8104−0.35201.03930.6997
20240.71691.01111.65731.44901.64731.67360.70830.80361.27400.36490.18271.25400.84381.04940.67680.65141.51460.44540.20330.27430.8885−0.30680.86290.5440