Global Carbon Budget 2023

A newer version of this dataset is available. The latest version available on Openclimatedata is 2024.

Published: December 5, 2023

Citation: Friedlingstein et al., Global Carbon Budget 2023. https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-15-5301-2023

Data: Global Carbon Project. (2023). Supplemental data of Global Carbon Budget 2023 (Version 1.1) [Data set]. Global Carbon Project. https://doi.org/10.18160/gcp-2023

Changelog:
  • 2022 total anthropogenic CO₂ emissions (including the cement carbonation sink): 11.1±0.8 GtC/year (40.7±3.2 GtCO₂/year).
  • 2022 fossil CO₂ emissions increased by 0.9% to 10.2±0.5 GtC/year (9.9 ± 0.5 GtC/year when the cement carbonation sink is included)
  • 2022 global atmospheric CO₂ concentration: 417.1 ± 0.1 ppm
  • remaining carbon budget for a 50% likelihood to limit global warming to 1.5, 1.7, and 2°C has reduced to 75 GtC (275 GtCO₂), 175 GtC (625 GtCO₂), and 315 GtC (1150 GtCO₂)

Ocean CO₂ sink (positive values represent a flux from the atmosphere to the ocean)

All values in billion tonnes of carbon per year (GtC/yr), for the globe.
For values in billion tonnes of carbon dioxide per year (GtCO₂/yr), multiply the numbers below by 3.664.
1 billion tonnes C = 1 petagram of carbon (10^15 gC) = 1 gigatonne C = 3.664 billion tonnes of CO₂
Methods:
The ocean sink (uncertainty of ±0.4 GtC/yr on average) is estimated from the average of 10 global ocean biogeochemistry models and 7 fCO₂ data products that reproduce the observed mean ocean sink of the 1990s. UOEx-Watson not used for the fCO₂ data products average.
Cite as: Friedlingstein et al 2023 (see summary tab).
Prior to 1990, the GCB ocean sink estimate is calculated from the GOBM multi-model mean with an offset applied. The offset is calculated as the half of the difference between GOBMs and data products in the period 1990-2001 (inclusive). This ensures no artificial jumps occur in 1990 when the data products are used to estimate the sink in conjunction with the GOBMs. Note: the surface ocean fCO₂-based data products are adjusted for a pre-industrial steady state source of CO₂ from rivers (of 0.65 GtC/yr) to be comparable with the ocean model results and to satisfy the definition of the ocean carbon sink used in the Global Carbon Budget.
Cite individual estimates as:

Global ocean biogeochemical models:

  • NEMO3.6-PISCESv2-gas (CNRM) Berthet, S., Séférian, R., Bricaud, C., Chevallier, M., Voldoire, A., & Ethé, C. ( 2019). Evaluation of an online grid‐coarsening algorithm in a global eddy‐admitting ocean biogeochemical model. Journal of Advances in Modeling Earth Systems, 11, 1759– 1783. https://doi.org/10.1029/2019MS001644
  • FESOM-2.1-REcoM2 Gürses, Ö., Oziel, L., Karakuş, O., Sidorenko, D., Völker, C., Ye, Y., Zeising, M., Butzin, M., and Hauck, J.: Ocean biogeochemistry in the coupled ocean–sea ice–biogeochemistry model FESOM2.1–REcoM3, Geosci. Model Dev., 16, 4883–4936, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-4883-2023, 2023.
  • NEMO-PISCES (IPSL) Aumont, O., Ethé, Tagliabue, A., Bopp, L., & Gehlen, M. (2015). PISCES-v2: an ocean biogeochemical model for carbon and ecosystem studies.
  • MOM6-COBALT (Princeton) Liao, E., Resplandy, L., Liu, J. and Bowman, K. W.: Amplification of the Ocean Carbon Sink During El Niños: Role of Poleward Ekman Transport and Influence on Atmospheric CO 2, Global Biogeochem. Cycles, 34(9), doi:10.1029/2020GB006574, 2020.
  • MRI-ESM2-2 Nakano, H., Tsujino, H., Hirabara, M., Yasuda, T., Motoi, T., Ishii, M., and Yamanaka, G.: Uptake mechanism of anthropogenic CO₂ in the Kuroshio Extension region in an ocean general circulation model, J. Oceanogr., 67, 765–783, https://doi.org/10.1007/s10872-011-0075-7, 2011.
  • MICOM-HAMOCC (NorESM-OCv1.2) Schwinger, J., Goris, N., Tjiputra, J. F., Kriest, I., Bentsen, M., Bethke, I., Ilicak, M., Assmann, K. M., and Heinze, C.: Evaluation of NorESM-OC (versions 1 and 1.2), the ocean carbon-cycle stand-alone configuration of the Norwegian Earth System Model (NorESM1), Geosci. Model Dev., 9, 2589-2622, 2016.
  • NEMO-PlankTOM12 Wright, R. M., Le Quéré, C., Buitenhuis, E., Pitois, S., & Gibbons, M. J. (2021). Role of jellyfish in the plankton ecosystem revealed using a global ocean biogeochemical model. Biogeosciences, 18(4), 1291-1320. https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-18-1291-2021
  • CESM-ETHZ Doney, S. C., Lima, I., Feely, R. A., Glover, D. M., Lindsay, K., Mahowald, N., Moore, J. K., and Wanninkhof, R.: Mech- anisms governing interannual variability in upper-ocean inor- ganic carbon system and air–sea CO₂ fluxes: Physical cli- mate and atmospheric dust, Deep-Sea Res. Pt. II, 56, 640–655, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.dsr2.2008.12.006, 2009.
  • MPIOM-HAMOCC6 Lacroix F., Tatiana Ilyina, Moritz Mathis, Goulven Laruelle, Pierre Regnier: Historical Increases in Land-Derived Nutrient Inputs May Alleviate Effects from a Changing Physical Climate on the Oceanic Carbon Cycle. Global Change Biology, https://doi.org/10.1111/gcb.15822, 2021
  • ACCESS (CSIRO) Law, R. M., Ziehn, T., Matear, R. J., Lenton, A., Chamberlain, M. A., Stevens, L. E., Wang, Y.-P., Srbinovsky, J., Bi, D., Yan, H., and Vohralik, P. F.: The carbon cycle in the Australian Community Climate and Earth System Simulator (ACCESS-ESM1) – Part 1: Model description and pre-industrial simulation, Geosci. Model Dev., 10, 2567–2590, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-10-2567-2017, 2017.

fCO₂-products

  • CMEMS-LSCE-FFNNv2 Chau, T. T. T., Gehlen, M., and Chevallier, F.: A seamless ensemble-based reconstruction of surface ocean pCO₂ and air–sea CO₂ fluxes over the global coastal and open oceans, Biogeosciences, 19, 1087–1109, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-19-1087-2022, 2022.
  • JMA-MLR Iida, Y., Takatani, Y., Kojima, A., and Ishii, M.: Global trends of ocean CO₂ sink and ocean acidification: an observation-based reconstruction of surface ocean inorganic carbon variables. J. Oceanogr. 77, 323–358. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10872-020-00571-5, 2021
  • LDEO-HPD Gloege, L., Yan, M., Zheng, T., and McKinley, G. A.: Improved Quantification of Ocean Carbon Uptake by Using Machine Learning to Merge Global Models and pCO₂ Data, J. Adv. Model. Earth Syst., 14, e2021MS002620, https://doi.org/10.1029/2021MS002620, 2022.
  • MPI-SOMFFN Landschützer, P., Gruber, N., and Bakker, D. C. E.: Decadal variations and trends of the global ocean carbon sink: decadal air-sea CO₂ flux variability, Global Biogeochem. Cycles, 30, 1396–1417, https://doi.org/10.1002/2015GB005359, 2016.
  • NIES-NN Zeng, J., Nojiri, Y., Landschützer, P., Telszewski, M., Nakaoka, S.: A Global Surface Ocean fCO₂ Climatology Based on a Feed-Forward Neural Network. Journal of Atmospheric and Oceanic Technology 31, 1838–1849. https://doi.org/10.1175/JTECH-D-13-00137.1, 2014.
  • OS-ETHZ-GRaCER Gregor, L. and Gruber, N.: OceanSODA-ETHZ: a global gridded data set of the surface ocean carbonate system for seasonal to decadal studies of ocean acidification, Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 13, 777–808, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-13-777-2021, 2021.
  • Jena-MLS Rödenbeck, C., DeVries, T., Hauck, J., Le Quéré, C., and Keeling, R. F.: Data-based estimates of interannual sea–air CO₂ flux variations 1957–2020 and their relation to environmental drivers, Biogeosciences, 19, 2627–2652, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-19-2627-2022, 2022.
  • UOEx-Watson Watson, A. J., Schuster, U., Shutler, J. D., Holding, T., Ashton, I. G. C., Landschützer, P., Woolf, D. K. and Goddijn-Murphy, L.: Revised estimates of ocean-atmosphere CO₂ flux are consistent with ocean carbon inventory, Nat. Commun., 11(1), 1–6, doi:10.1038/s41467-020-18203-3, 2020.

GCB

GCB

1960
1980
2000
2020
1
1.5
2
2.5
GtC

1 sigma uncertainty

1960
1980
2000
2020
0.4
GtC

Unit GtC/year

YearGCB1 sigma uncertainty
19590.99240.4000
19600.93650.4000
19610.83950.4000
19620.92360.4000
19631.11170.4000
19641.22950.4000
19651.33790.4000
19661.26840.4000
19671.11010.4000
19681.20100.4000
19691.29990.4000
19701.11310.4000
19711.22930.4000
19721.53120.4000
19731.37190.4000
19741.31860.4000
19751.23800.4000
19761.44050.4000
19771.53090.4000
19781.55550.4000
19791.52500.4000
19801.78840.4000
19811.76290.4000
19821.94710.4000
19832.09850.4000
19841.87410.4000
19851.76700.4000
19861.83430.4000
19871.98860.4000
19881.80910.4000
19891.84650.4000
19902.00880.4000
19912.13980.4000
19922.30170.4000
19932.24580.4000
19942.03420.4000
19952.03320.4000
19962.02850.4000
19972.20050.4000
19982.24040.4000
19991.99660.4000
20001.93670.4000
20011.83710.4000
20022.23780.4000
20032.34310.4000
20042.30340.4000
20052.33690.4000
20062.44600.4000
20072.37770.4000
20082.40140.4000
20092.55910.4000
20102.51830.4000
20112.55680.4000
20122.61770.4000
20132.64950.4000
20142.78600.4000
20152.85000.4000
20162.96920.4000
20172.83050.4000
20182.90750.4000
20192.95590.4000
20202.91440.4000
20212.82560.4000
20222.77970.4000

Individual Models

ACCESS (CSIRO)

1960
1980
2000
2020
1
1.5
2
2.5
3
3.5
GtC

CESM-ETHZ

1960
1980
2000
2020
0.8
1
1.2
1.4
1.6
1.8
2
2.2
2.4
2.6
GtC

FESOM-2.1-REcoM3

1960
1980
2000
2020
1
1.5
2
2.5
3
GtC

MICOM-HAMOCC (NorESM1-OCv1.2)

1960
1980
2000
2020
1
1.5
2
2.5
3
GtC

MOM6-COBALT (Princeton)

1960
1980
2000
2020
0.5
1
1.5
2
GtC

MPIOM-HAMOCC6

1960
1980
2000
2020
1
1.5
2
2.5
GtC

MRI-ESM2-21

1960
1980
2000
2020
1
1.5
2
2.5
GtC

NEMO-PISCES (IPSL)

1960
1980
2000
2020
1
1.5
2
2.5
GtC

NEMO-PlankTOM12

1960
1980
2000
2020
0.8
1
1.2
1.4
1.6
1.8
2
2.2
2.4
GtC

NEMO3.6-PISCESv2-gas (CNRM)

1960
1980
2000
2020
0.5
1
1.5
2
GtC

Multi-model mean

1960
1980
2000
2020
1
1.5
2
2.5
GtC

Model Spread (sd)

1960
1980
2000
2020
0.25
0.3
0.35
0.4
0.45
GtC

Unit GtC/year

YearACCESS (CSIRO)CESM-ETHZFESOM-2.1-REcoM3MICOM-HAMOCC (NorESM1-OCv1.2)MOM6-COBALT (Princeton)MPIOM-HAMOCC6MRI-ESM2-21NEMO-PISCES (IPSL)NEMO-PlankTOM12NEMO3.6-PISCESv2-gas (CNRM)Multi-model meanModel Spread (sd)
19591.17441.06771.08161.08070.32970.65340.82700.80220.91200.56960.84980.2696
19600.89051.05091.06201.05970.46120.63120.89180.68260.76050.44880.79390.2350
19611.02260.79810.93240.98680.31370.54100.75370.56100.77390.28600.69690.2632
19621.23860.89420.92381.15680.40620.62180.82960.58940.74140.40820.78100.2847
19631.41871.01141.02321.33990.60770.78371.11740.78780.98290.61830.96910.2764
19641.42281.14951.30761.44600.81520.95251.01430.95221.00130.80751.08690.2345
19651.68891.30471.20201.62500.82970.96831.22811.03661.10280.96671.19530.2814
19661.56601.23291.22841.62910.85320.91121.10100.93000.87730.92891.12580.2846
19671.35711.00601.17581.44410.66570.90900.82690.82440.79470.67110.96750.2741
19681.58321.15221.11321.49620.79220.89381.07670.91980.92220.63431.05840.2972
19691.69731.23941.13461.59130.93970.85061.20760.96421.10460.84341.15730.2924
19701.12541.01851.17901.47230.81020.82950.92840.79260.88610.66260.97050.2363
19711.59051.12371.23241.52440.87871.02431.05630.81900.97160.64581.08670.2973
19722.02061.47791.35281.78441.13021.04111.57221.17841.22301.10601.38870.3228
19731.74661.30601.37521.83451.11171.04301.06601.00381.00750.79921.22930.3369
19741.68671.11121.34561.77460.98721.07181.06690.97421.00790.73441.17600.3291
19751.58481.02941.16501.71860.87371.19161.02170.83360.85940.67651.09540.3334
19761.89791.26351.25241.88371.04421.15141.42260.98501.16790.91071.29790.3452
19771.89001.39071.38881.95471.15571.24031.50951.14641.21730.98991.38830.3179
19781.94711.46081.50821.90681.18321.28511.37931.21481.17481.06911.41290.3028
19792.09021.37601.32461.75791.09071.06091.45721.16421.29721.20531.38240.3207
19802.20731.65421.82802.04591.37721.33681.55101.45861.48271.51651.64580.2913
19812.19141.60431.83942.07201.39471.38661.53591.40801.50121.26971.62030.3115
19822.52451.79151.93882.13401.49521.48941.85281.54141.80061.47681.80450.3365
19832.63061.97972.10922.32211.70071.45322.00961.73382.00811.61201.95590.3503
19842.14161.65381.98262.27821.52421.59511.50451.48521.67361.47621.73150.2941
19852.24871.61401.76202.25921.28971.53991.44831.37661.49701.20841.62440.3671
19862.25981.57721.89532.29231.35421.53371.64821.49301.45651.40661.69170.3424
19872.54291.77731.84772.22631.45871.48261.98311.65741.78791.69581.84600.3329
19882.14501.72251.97712.13441.48521.50041.40391.53081.53541.22991.66650.3168
19892.33911.55371.80552.25951.35471.65721.61481.38821.71491.35111.70390.3498
19902.48921.73581.93392.27651.49621.61401.81461.56061.66431.47631.80620.3385
19912.37831.89102.05332.31261.71571.60291.92951.62801.90081.77651.91890.2649
19922.79042.10722.19272.56461.92621.96272.11241.83942.17121.87372.15400.3065
19932.70152.02532.24412.55171.84971.88552.04521.87582.00471.92592.11090.2967
19942.45061.82252.10252.40181.66321.66341.73911.72421.71921.42511.87110.3368
19952.58061.88262.17192.30481.73371.63921.83201.78961.59561.57321.91030.3354
19962.45771.85482.21232.23791.78221.65901.83381.74201.71411.57541.90690.2917
19972.93782.05802.15372.32891.88271.57482.19771.95341.89551.85962.08420.3667
19982.88592.07112.42912.36402.04921.50772.13752.02371.94301.80682.12180.3746
19992.43001.71832.23752.41111.71071.80051.69641.56911.67651.38801.86380.3628
20002.40911.63852.04192.39011.56021.77531.73431.60551.50691.41621.80780.3554
20012.39821.62761.85132.30321.49171.58721.72511.59991.57341.20531.73630.3642
20022.85632.09882.39072.54621.94021.83702.11602.03931.94081.78852.15540.3409
20032.95442.21202.38912.68732.11571.88582.17081.99171.93131.80172.21400.3684
20042.96252.11612.28252.58741.93921.91062.06971.93811.96281.74192.15110.3689
20053.01062.21032.38592.61442.06171.84252.08862.03651.87221.80812.19310.3815
20063.10262.22052.47432.72952.17321.99032.30342.06592.09271.79032.29430.3851
20073.00172.14662.59772.65852.14771.95011.98832.12531.94821.81642.23810.3838
20083.08282.08182.40012.76462.06722.03892.26311.98172.10561.71562.25020.4036
20093.12092.23002.40152.64472.13271.95982.24402.08812.16411.98582.29720.3523
20103.07002.17212.45492.62072.18521.93062.14492.10552.03051.89302.26070.3606
20113.11112.12232.71032.78782.22872.10142.27372.13692.17101.87522.35180.3855
20123.27322.33642.50872.93382.24022.06432.48262.24432.18352.04842.43150.3934
20133.23732.34062.65912.93792.27072.12912.32342.25072.23391.96062.43430.3927
20143.39542.39482.80853.00102.31022.31292.52332.41012.43142.26972.58570.3686
20153.53552.58092.77493.11902.26772.32572.69822.45752.55982.35992.66790.3950
20163.39162.62713.05333.08012.44922.29262.50002.55492.52432.35412.68270.3637
20173.32362.38032.75373.02712.30972.30542.44792.25332.40681.96432.51720.4035
20183.49772.44442.88413.01022.29522.26922.53172.32772.44922.24152.59510.4098
20193.46282.44362.89353.05432.41772.21712.47662.18312.47872.21772.58450.4202
20203.47992.45882.86492.97532.44222.38092.38552.00552.43212.32382.57490.4184
20213.33502.22792.72433.08942.24572.52672.41731.88792.34062.01702.48120.4559
20223.31112.29512.75473.09342.27322.46252.32421.90132.32212.02322.47610.4487

Data-based Products

CMEMS-LSCE-FFNN

1960
1980
2000
2020
2.2
2.4
2.6
2.8
3
3.2
GtC

Jena-MLS

1960
1980
2000
2020
1
1.5
2
2.5
3
3.5
GtC

JMA-MLR

1960
1980
2000
2020
2.6
2.8
3
3.2
3.4
3.6
GtC

LDEO-HPD

1960
1980
2000
2020
1
1.5
2
2.5
3
GtC

MPI-SOMFFN

1960
1980
2000
2020
1.8
2
2.2
2.4
2.6
2.8
3
3.2
GtC

NIES-ML3

1960
1980
2000
2020
2
2.2
2.4
2.6
GtC

OS_ETH_Gracer

1960
1980
2000
2020
2.4
2.6
2.8
3
3.2
3.4
GtC

UOEx-Watson

1960
1980
2000
2020
2.4
2.6
2.8
3
3.2
3.4
3.6
3.8
4
GtC

Average data-products (excl. Watson.)

1960
1980
2000
2020
2
2.2
2.4
2.6
2.8
3
3.2
GtC

sd data-products (excl. Watson.)

1960
1980
2000
2020
0.2
0.25
0.3
0.35
0.4
0.45
GtC

Unit GtC/year

YearCMEMS-LSCE-FFNNJena-MLSJMA-MLRLDEO-HPDMPI-SOMFFNNIES-ML3OS_ETH_GracerUOEx-WatsonAverage data-products (excl. Watson.)sd data-products (excl. Watson.)
1959-0.6918-0.7830------
1960-0.7610-0.7795------
1961-0.5779-0.7426------
1962-0.6437-0.7702------
1963-0.8878-1.0219------
1964-0.9335-1.1190------
1965-1.0350-1.1704------
1966-0.9132-1.0906------
1967-0.7462-0.9577------
1968-0.8687-1.1277------
1969-1.0392-1.2221------
1970-0.9899-1.0561------
1971-0.9311-1.1106------
1972-1.2095-1.3871------
1973-1.1319-1.3295------
1974-1.0588-1.2808------
1975-0.9983-1.2342------
1976-1.1856-1.3901------
1977-1.4665-1.5181------
1978-1.4216-1.5193------
1979-1.5014-1.5307------
1980-1.7981-2.0323------
1981-1.6523-1.9599------
1982-1.8679-2.1000------
1983-2.0051-2.2208------
1984-1.8283-2.1807------
1985-1.8469-2.0677------
1986-1.9979-2.1744------
1987-2.0347-2.0843------
1988-1.7665-1.8756------
1989-1.6369-2.2786------
19902.03761.76193.18372.24241.99221.98812.27343.00902.21140.4619
19912.15512.12273.13052.59552.11082.05312.35772.98152.36080.3881
19922.18752.49322.99472.86712.14771.97372.48192.94692.44940.3787
19932.28832.22502.86252.62202.19301.94032.53392.93082.38070.3098
19942.26911.86912.80512.02032.08531.93512.39732.85952.19730.3253
19952.21641.91882.77421.97051.88831.96592.35862.68802.15610.3228
19962.20451.93922.70991.96301.83642.00532.39252.56492.15010.3093
19972.34742.29502.78932.24311.98252.05372.50672.72072.31680.2730
19982.17292.68002.83782.29091.88232.19922.44972.67002.35900.3247
19992.02762.27082.69231.88551.65502.11162.26362.33192.12950.3292
20002.04182.05512.49221.90111.67522.01542.27872.33332.06560.2614
20012.03571.55032.43751.69131.61761.98192.25082.33281.93790.3348
20022.26772.52562.62902.20031.93912.15772.52212.53432.32020.2473
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