Global Carbon Budget 2024

Published: March 14, 2025

Citation: Friedlingstein et al., Global Carbon Budget 2024. https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-17-965-2025

Data: Global Carbon Project. (2024). Supplemental data of Global Carbon Budget 2024 (Version 1.0) [Data set]. Global Carbon Project. https://doi.org/10.18160/gcp-2024

Changelog:
  • 2023 total anthropogenic CO₂ emission (including the cement carbonation sink) of 11.1 ± 0.9 GtC/year (40.6 ± 3.2 GtCO₂/year)
  • 2023 fossil CO₂ emissions increased by 1.3% relative to 2022 to 10.3 ± 0.5 GtC/year (10.1 ± 0.5 GtC/year when the cement carbonation sink is included)
  • 2023 global atmospheric CO₂ concentration: 419.3 ± 0.1 ppm
  • remaining carbon budget for a 50 % likelihood to limit global warming to 1.5, 1.7, and 2 °C has been reduced to 65 GtC (235 GtCO₂), 160 GtC (585 GtCO₂), and 305 GtC (1110 GtCO₂),

Ocean CO₂ sink (positive values represent a flux from the atmosphere to the ocean)

All values in billion tonnes of carbon per year (GtC/yr), for the globe. For values in billion tonnes of carbon dioxide per year (GtCO₂/yr), multiply the numbers below by 3.664.
1 billion tonnes C = 1 petagram of carbon (10^15 gC) = 1 gigatonne C = 3.664 billion tonnes of CO₂
Methods: The ocean sink (uncertainty of ±0.4 GtC/yr on average) is estimated from the average of 10 global ocean biogeochemistry models and 7 fCO₂ data products that reproduce the observed mean ocean sink of the 1990s. UOEx-Watson not used for the fCO₂ data products average.
Cite as: Friedlingstein et al 2023 (see summary tab).
Prior to 1990, the GCB ocean sink estimate is calculated from the GOBM multi-model mean with an offset applied. The offset is calculated as the half of the difference between GOBMs and data products in the period 1990-2001 (inclusive). This ensures no artificial jumps occur in 1990 when the data products are used to estimate the sink in conjunction with the GOBMs.
Note: the surface ocean fCO₂-based data products are adjusted for a pre-industrial steady state source of CO₂ from rivers (of 0.65 GtC/yr) to be comparable with the ocean model results and to satisfy the definition of the ocean carbon sink used in the Global Carbon Budget.
Cite individual estimates as:
Global ocean biogeochemical models:
  • NEMO3.6-PISCESv2-gas (CNRM) Berthet, S., Séférian, R., Bricaud, C., Chevallier, M., Voldoire, A., & Ethé, C. ( 2019). Evaluation of an online grid‐coarsening algorithm in a global eddy‐admitting ocean biogeochemical model. Journal of Advances in Modeling Earth Systems, 11, 1759–1783. https://doi.org/10.1029/2019MS001644
  • FESOM-2.1-REcoM2 Gürses, Ö., Oziel, L., Karakuş, O., Sidorenko, D., Völker, C., Ye, Y., Zeising, M., Butzin, M., and Hauck, J.: Ocean biogeochemistry in the coupled ocean–sea ice–biogeochemistry model FESOM2.1–REcoM3, Geosci. Model Dev., 16, 4883–4936, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-4883-2023, 2023.
  • NEMO-PISCES (IPSL) Aumont, O., Ethé, Tagliabue, A., Bopp, L., & Gehlen, M. (2015). PISCES-v2: an ocean biogeochemical model for carbon and ecosystem studies.
  • MOM6-COBALT (Princeton) Liao, E., Resplandy, L., Liu, J. and Bowman, K. W.: Amplification of the Ocean Carbon Sink During El Niños: Role of Poleward Ekman Transport and Influence on Atmospheric CO 2, Global Biogeochem. Cycles, 34(9), doi:10.1029/2020GB006574, 2020.
  • MRI-ESM2-2 Nakano, H., Tsujino, H., Hirabara, M., Yasuda, T., Motoi, T., Ishii, M., and Yamanaka, G.: Uptake mechanism of anthropogenic CO₂ in the Kuroshio Extension region in an ocean general circulation model, J. Oceanogr., 67, 765–783, https://doi.org/10.1007/s10872-011-0075-7, 2011.
  • MICOM-HAMOCC (NorESM-OCv1.2) Schwinger, J., Goris, N., Tjiputra, J. F., Kriest, I., Bentsen, M., Bethke, I., Ilicak, M., Assmann, K. M., and Heinze, C.: Evaluation of NorESM-OC (versions 1 and 1.2), the ocean carbon-cycle stand-alone configuration of the Norwegian Earth System Model (NorESM1), Geosci. Model Dev., 9, 2589-2622, 2016.
  • NEMO-PlankTOM12 Wright, R. M., Le Quéré, C., Buitenhuis, E., Pitois, S., & Gibbons, M. J. (2021). Role of jellyfish in the plankton ecosystem revealed using a global ocean biogeochemical model. Biogeosciences, 18(4), 1291-1320. https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-18-1291-2021
  • CESM-ETHZ Doney, S. C., Lima, I., Feely, R. A., Glover, D. M., Lindsay, K., Mahowald, N., Moore, J. K., and Wanninkhof, R.: Mech- anisms governing interannual variability in upper-ocean inor- ganic carbon system and air–sea CO₂ fluxes: Physical cli- mate and atmospheric dust, Deep-Sea Res. Pt. II, 56, 640–655, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.dsr2.2008.12.006, 2009.
  • MPIOM-HAMOCC6 Lacroix F., Tatiana Ilyina, Moritz Mathis, Goulven Laruelle, Pierre Regnier: Historical Increases in Land-Derived Nutrient Inputs May Alleviate Effects from a Changing Physical Climate on the Oceanic Carbon Cycle. Global Change Biology, https://doi.org/10.1111/gcb.15822, 2021
  • ACCESS (CSIRO) Law, R. M., Ziehn, T., Matear, R. J., Lenton, A., Chamberlain, M. A., Stevens, L. E., Wang, Y.-P., Srbinovsky, J., Bi, D., Yan, H., and Vohralik, P. F.: The carbon cycle in the Australian Community Climate and Earth System Simulator (ACCESS-ESM1) – Part 1: Model description and pre-industrial simulation, Geosci. Model Dev., 10, 2567–2590, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-10-2567-2017, 2017.
fCO₂-products:
  • CMEMS-LSCE-FFNNv2 Chau, T. T. T., Gehlen, M., and Chevallier, F.: A seamless ensemble-based reconstruction of surface ocean pCO₂ and air–sea CO₂ fluxes over the global coastal and open oceans, Biogeosciences, 19, 1087–1109, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-19-1087-2022, 2022.
  • JMA-MLR Iida, Y., Takatani, Y., Kojima, A., and Ishii, M.: Global trends of ocean CO₂ sink and ocean acidification: an observation-based reconstruction of surface ocean inorganic carbon variables. J. Oceanogr. 77, 323–358. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10872-020-00571-5, 2021
  • LDEO-HPD Gloege, L., Yan, M., Zheng, T., and McKinley, G. A.: Improved Quantification of Ocean Carbon Uptake by Using Machine Learning to Merge Global Models and pCO₂ Data, J. Adv. Model. Earth Syst., 14, e2021MS002620, https://doi.org/10.1029/2021MS002620, 2022.
  • MPI-SOMFFN Landschützer, P., Gruber, N., and Bakker, D. C. E.: Decadal variations and trends of the global ocean carbon sink: decadal air-sea CO₂ flux variability, Global Biogeochem. Cycles, 30, 1396–1417, https://doi.org/10.1002/2015GB005359, 2016.
  • NIES-NN Zeng, J., Nojiri, Y., Landschützer, P., Telszewski, M., Nakaoka, S.: A Global Surface Ocean fCO₂ Climatology Based on a Feed-Forward Neural Network. Journal of Atmospheric and Oceanic Technology 31, 1838–1849. https://doi.org/10.1175/JTECH-D-13-00137.1, 2014.
  • OS-ETHZ-GRaCER Gregor, L. and Gruber, N.: OceanSODA-ETHZ: a global gridded data set of the surface ocean carbonate system for seasonal to decadal studies of ocean acidification, Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 13, 777–808, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-13-777-2021, 2021.
  • Jena-MLS Rödenbeck, C., DeVries, T., Hauck, J., Le Quéré, C., and Keeling, R. F.: Data-based estimates of interannual sea–air CO₂ flux variations 1957–2020 and their relation to environmental drivers, Biogeosciences, 19, 2627–2652, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-19-2627-2022, 2022.
  • UOEx-Watson Watson, A. J., Schuster, U., Shutler, J. D., Holding, T., Ashton, I. G. C., Landschützer, P., Woolf, D. K. and Goddijn-Murphy, L.: Revised estimates of ocean-atmosphere CO₂ flux are consistent with ocean carbon inventory, Nat. Commun., 11(1), 1–6, doi:10.1038/s41467-020-18203-3, 2020.

GCB

GCB

1960
1980
2000
2020
1
1.5
2
2.5
3
GtC

Unit GtC/year

YearGCB
19591.0084
19600.9998
19610.8798
19620.9574
19631.1323
19641.2627
19651.3625
19661.3244
19671.1608
19681.2510
19691.3653
19701.2143
19711.2921
19721.5721
19731.4614
19741.3891
19751.3071
19761.5172
19771.6253
19781.6103
19791.5771
19801.8971
19811.8160
19821.9250
19832.1206
19841.8985
19851.8121
19861.8786
19871.9811
19881.8881
19891.8634
19902.0192
19912.1766
19922.3027
19932.2562
19942.0676
19952.0734
19962.0639
19972.2089
19982.2571
19992.0526
20001.9919
20011.8862
20022.2788
20032.3951
20042.3597
20052.3920
20062.5119
20072.4446
20082.4735
20092.6126
20102.5799
20112.6166
20122.6657
20132.7116
20142.8342
20152.8809
20163.0108
20172.8309
20182.9198
20192.9307
20202.9004
20212.8001
20222.7227
20232.8807

Individual Models

ACCESS (CSIRO)

1960
1980
2000
2020
1.5
2
2.5
3
3.5
GtC

CESM-ETHZ

1960
1980
2000
2020
1
1.2
1.4
1.6
1.8
2
2.2
2.4
GtC

FESOM-2.1-REcoM3

1960
1980
2000
2020
1
1.5
2
2.5
3
GtC

MICOM-HAMOCC (NorESM1-OCv1.2)

1960
1980
2000
2020
1
1.5
2
2.5
3
GtC

MOM6-COBALT (Princeton)

1960
1980
2000
2020
0.5
1
1.5
2
GtC

MPIOM-HAMOCC6

1960
1980
2000
2020
1
1.5
2
2.5
GtC

MRI-ESM2-21

1960
1980
2000
2020
1
1.5
2
2.5
GtC

NEMO-PISCES (IPSL)

1960
1980
2000
2020
1
1.5
2
2.5
GtC

NEMO-PlankTOM12

1960
1980
2000
2020
0.8
1
1.2
1.4
1.6
1.8
2
2.2
2.4
GtC

NEMO3.6-PISCESv2-gas (CNRM)

1960
1980
2000
2020
0.5
1
1.5
2
GtC

Multi-model mean

1960
1980
2000
2020
1
1.5
2
2.5
GtC

Model Spread (sd)

1960
1980
2000
2020
0.25
0.3
0.35
0.4
GtC

Unit GtC/year

YearACCESS (CSIRO)CESM-ETHZFESOM-2.1-REcoM3MICOM-HAMOCC (NorESM1-OCv1.2)MOM6-COBALT (Princeton)MPIOM-HAMOCC6MRI-ESM2-21NEMO-PISCES (IPSL)NEMO-PlankTOM12NEMO3.6-PISCESv2-gas (CNRM)Multi-model meanModel Spread (sd)
19591.10341.25451.13071.02120.32960.73480.81400.71780.88820.56540.85600.2830
19601.10331.19351.10681.02330.46110.73580.87300.79340.72400.45940.84730.2613
19611.02010.91550.95790.96440.31360.70570.68290.68300.71880.31150.72730.2536
19621.19590.98450.93511.14850.40610.74770.77580.70960.70650.43960.80490.2657
19631.37281.08561.03421.33460.60760.89971.01470.83520.95230.66160.97980.2502
19641.34861.21961.32931.44970.81511.06261.06161.06680.90110.84771.11020.2207
19651.61741.34361.20851.63070.82961.16361.18951.08341.03480.99881.21000.2581
19661.50031.28171.24961.63580.85311.11051.10541.08990.92060.97191.17190.2496
19671.30411.05171.19271.45090.66561.00550.84030.98050.86230.72891.00830.2506
19681.53491.17471.13591.49400.79221.08541.09631.02210.95810.69201.09860.2664
19691.65581.25481.17201.59310.93971.09641.23021.12371.16090.90211.21290.2449
19701.36861.03981.22411.48320.81021.07230.96411.00830.93360.71411.06180.2384
19711.60841.13781.27831.53730.87871.21631.12400.99990.91440.70121.13960.2855
19721.98331.47181.38741.79841.13021.31331.48091.19651.26311.17131.41960.2788
19731.73211.32491.41451.84651.11171.34821.10281.27511.07390.85941.30890.3020
19741.68791.13491.37871.80360.98721.35521.09071.21770.91170.79841.23660.3251
19751.58381.06791.20781.74970.87371.41111.04171.12630.74740.73651.15460.3412
19761.90261.29001.30201.91881.04421.40711.41061.20691.18020.98461.36470.3190
19771.91641.42901.46812.01891.15571.54901.49951.29051.32501.07661.47290.3011
19781.91731.45001.54121.90401.18321.51001.39441.32311.23971.11571.45790.2753
19792.09711.38911.38241.79601.09071.24491.42231.22571.31651.28181.42460.2998
19802.26691.70011.92952.15211.37721.61391.65221.60821.51421.63191.74460.2829
19812.17981.56111.87762.09921.39471.60881.62411.57081.39101.32791.66350.2953
19822.43661.70011.91682.06731.49521.60081.76311.62841.63281.48401.77250.2951
19832.58541.93322.11992.30141.70071.72282.03501.78901.83351.66011.96810.2977
19841.84331.62622.00502.26951.52421.73171.62691.74961.57431.50911.74600.2390
19852.20411.55821.77422.24161.28971.71471.46381.65821.44501.24621.65960.3422
19862.28091.54331.92732.31271.35421.72261.62171.64581.37781.47531.72620.3441
19872.55081.72431.87342.22581.45871.66561.80461.70941.52561.74841.82870.3281
19882.17861.72532.04062.17591.48531.68951.51151.78901.45131.30941.73560.3097
19892.05841.54141.83972.27701.35481.79051.61841.71261.48511.43151.71090.2901
19902.21831.70841.98082.30611.49631.83141.75141.75521.59891.55961.82060.2716
19912.41711.87242.09702.34221.71581.81641.92431.91381.83461.85661.97900.2328
19922.55692.05542.20812.55331.92632.10042.06522.02042.00841.93172.14260.2319
19932.45981.98752.26022.55341.84982.03632.05012.00201.95311.98282.11350.2323
19942.23361.77752.12442.41741.66331.90231.77001.89951.76191.47891.90290.2816
19952.38641.81252.18452.31851.73381.89021.87291.93811.63771.61791.93930.2715
19962.27831.81062.23762.26961.78231.84321.84881.95871.69141.64201.93630.2408
19972.75911.97262.15182.30671.88281.75312.10281.93431.82721.91512.06050.2952
19982.72992.00362.42792.33682.04931.78912.03772.11591.88091.85512.12260.2936
19992.29281.72572.27702.44791.71081.93101.74461.98651.61971.46421.92000.3266
20002.26761.61572.08622.40601.56031.94201.64951.85711.46551.49031.83400.3336
20012.26741.58771.89832.30511.49181.80801.62541.76971.52821.27041.75520.3315
20022.71232.02572.42642.51821.94032.07792.03232.06031.96301.84542.16020.2870
20032.84112.17882.43962.68132.11582.11692.16122.21591.94981.88052.25810.3068
20042.86392.07182.32172.58341.93932.10382.07122.16252.00551.81662.19400.3160
20052.90482.15582.40792.59552.06182.10682.10912.18111.94731.86862.23390.3157
20063.30262.17992.52802.74162.17332.17972.28802.23972.12901.86472.36260.4056
20073.14442.07892.62012.61772.14782.17972.02492.26832.01481.85082.29470.3891
20083.22932.04392.45632.78782.06742.21662.23582.24082.05661.78292.31170.4197
20093.20512.14702.42842.64382.13292.15762.17472.19542.16032.04892.32940.3537
20103.15392.14502.50552.65292.18542.21852.18462.24002.01011.97202.32680.3561
20113.17382.15002.74772.82402.22892.30552.25962.28562.16881.93712.40810.3801
20123.31362.31602.55082.94412.24042.34452.38752.39522.13362.09812.47240.3799
20133.26842.32812.71092.96222.27092.42642.31042.43882.18842.02222.49270.3802
20143.40732.36512.84013.00732.31042.50842.47232.48842.33312.33232.60650.3642
20153.54212.49312.78523.12142.26792.54132.55522.52702.44792.43642.67180.3836
20163.42192.59423.11133.11152.44942.55532.55212.74662.46172.43242.74360.3477
20173.32782.34822.79353.02662.30992.43022.41902.53722.32442.02452.55410.3870
20183.52262.42722.94063.02772.29542.48922.46692.60682.34422.32962.64500.3974
20193.44942.41532.92373.02282.41792.43212.42892.57442.34392.27762.62860.3789
20203.45032.42932.89892.94592.44242.60012.38882.61502.28772.34372.64020.3617
20213.32912.23732.78703.10102.24592.65712.29972.54962.18352.00682.53970.4294
20223.32192.28732.81713.11412.27342.59502.30962.47812.18822.03492.54200.4205
20233.59582.43642.87633.32922.43992.55802.73052.43572.51802.22192.71420.4368

Data-based Products

CMEMS-LSCE-FFNN

1960
1980
2000
2020
2
2.2
2.4
2.6
2.8
3
GtC

CSIR-ML6

1960
1980
2000
2020
2
2.5
3
3.5
4
GtC

Jena-MLS

1960
1980
2000
2020
1
1.5
2
2.5
3
GtC

JMA-MLR

1960
1980
2000
2020
2.6
2.8
3
3.2
3.4
3.6
GtC

LDEO-HPD

1960
1980
2000
2020
1.5
2
2.5
3
GtC

NIES-ML3

1960
1980
2000
2020
2.4
2.6
2.8
3
GtC

OceanSODA-ETHZv2

1960
1980
2000
2020
2.3
2.4
2.5
2.6
2.7
2.8
2.9
GtC

UoEX-UEPFFNU (former called Watson)

1960
1980
2000
2020
2.2
2.4
2.6
2.8
3
3.2
3.4
3.6
3.8
GtC

VLIZ-SOMFFN

1960
1980
2000
2020
2
2.2
2.4
2.6
2.8
3
GtC

Average fCO2-products (excl. UExP-FFN-U)

1960
1980
2000
2020
2.2
2.4
2.6
2.8
3
3.2
GtC

sd fCO2-products (excl. UExP-FFN-U)

1960
1980
2000
2020
0.2
0.3
0.4
0.5
GtC

Unit GtC/year

YearCMEMS-LSCE-FFNNCSIR-ML6Jena-MLSJMA-MLRLDEO-HPDNIES-ML3OceanSODA-ETHZv2UoEX-UEPFFNU (former called Watson)VLIZ-SOMFFNAverage fCO2-products (excl. UExP-FFN-U)sd fCO2-products (excl. UExP-FFN-U)
1959--0.6772-1.1030------
1960--0.7578-1.1052------
1961--0.5587-1.0245------
1962--0.6234-1.0515------
1963--0.8620-1.3168------
1964--0.9194-1.4399------
1965--1.0129-1.5045------
1966--0.9134-1.4131------
1967--0.7363-1.2476------
1968--0.8550-1.4067------
1969--1.0051-1.5053------
1970--0.9552-1.3465------
1971--0.9039-1.4033------
1972--1.1895-1.6696------
1973--1.1219-1.6232------
1974--1.0573-1.5093------
1975--0.9658-1.4600------
1976--1.1383-1.6197------
1977--1.3813-1.7693------
1978--1.3693-1.7265------
1979--1.4556-1.8012------
1980--1.7505-2.1466------
1981--1.5964-2.0594------
1982--1.8437-2.3568------
1983--2.0092-2.5511------
1984--1.8123-2.5163------
1985--1.8138-2.4566------
1986--2.0005-2.5304------
1987--2.0439-2.4591------
1988--1.7783-2.1513------
1989--1.6499-2.4315------
19901.90561.79731.73853.08992.44782.27402.21282.51172.27572.21770.4349
19912.03951.96542.11873.07932.86002.35602.26562.58372.30932.37420.3953
19922.06772.00512.50372.95093.15822.30362.32562.58942.38812.46290.4033
19932.17971.92492.21112.83672.94462.25712.38042.38682.45682.39890.3425
19942.19401.95041.85152.73692.19192.24592.31992.35242.36862.23240.2696
19952.18771.91921.88602.80852.08082.27282.32462.31232.18042.20750.2885
19962.15101.93081.91202.74292.03532.30702.34272.25942.11062.19150.2723
19972.30922.03192.27852.77842.38402.32582.45232.37652.29732.35720.2091
19982.18161.98282.67002.84962.35772.49552.45692.37002.13862.39160.2875
19992.06171.91602.24382.71521.89662.45332.29082.08211.90332.18510.2971
20002.10132.01062.04392.52301.92162.35742.31102.09561.92992.14980.2209
20012.09871.97561.50772.43611.68412.26112.25062.07531.92432.01730.3110
20022.33152.28322.52562.62602.27162.48462.44642.29272.21022.39740.1449
20032.42842.38372.81202.86632.40822.54942.46732.44692.34142.53210.1996
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