Global Carbon Budget 2024

Published: March 14, 2025

Citation: Friedlingstein et al., Global Carbon Budget 2024. https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-17-965-2025

Data: Global Carbon Project. (2024). Supplemental data of Global Carbon Budget 2024 (Version 1.0) [Data set]. Global Carbon Project. https://doi.org/10.18160/gcp-2024

Changelog:
  • 2023 total anthropogenic CO₂ emission (including the cement carbonation sink) of 11.1 ± 0.9 GtC/year (40.6 ± 3.2 GtCO₂/year)
  • 2023 fossil CO₂ emissions increased by 1.3% relative to 2022 to 10.3 ± 0.5 GtC/year (10.1 ± 0.5 GtC/year when the cement carbonation sink is included)
  • 2023 global atmospheric CO₂ concentration: 419.3 ± 0.1 ppm
  • remaining carbon budget for a 50 % likelihood to limit global warming to 1.5, 1.7, and 2 °C has been reduced to 65 GtC (235 GtCO₂), 160 GtC (585 GtCO₂), and 305 GtC (1110 GtCO₂),

Land-use change emissions

All values in billion tonnes of carbon per year (GtC/yr), for the globe. For values in billion tonnes of carbon dioxide per year (GtCO₂/yr), multiply the numbers below by 3.664.
1 billion tonnes C = 1 petagram of carbon (10^15 gC) = 1 gigatonne C = 3.664 billion tonnes of CO₂
Methods: The GCB estimate is the average of four bookkeeping models H&N23, BLUE, OSCAR, and LUCE (uncertainty of ±0.7 GtC/yr). Individual results from dynamic global vegetation models (calculated as S2-S3; see Supplementary S2.2 in Friedlingstein et al. 2024) are also provided but not used for the GCB estimate.
Cite as: Friedlingstein et al (2024; see summary tab)
Data below represents the net flux of land-use change, based on the net balance between deforestation and forest regrowth along with other land-use changes
Cite individual estimates as:
  • H&N Houghton, R. A. and Castanho, A.: Annual emissions of carbon from land use, land-use change, and forestry from 1850 to 2020, Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 15, 2025–2054, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-15-2025-2023, 2023.
  • BLUE Hansis, E., Davis, S. J., and Pongratz, J.: Relevance of methodological choices for accounting of land use change carbon fluxes, Global Biogeochemical Cycles, 29, 1230-1246, 2015.
  • OSCAR Gasser, T., Crepin, L., Quilcaille, Y., Houghton, R. A., Ciais, P. and Obersteiner, M.: Historical CO 2 emissions from land use and land cover change and their uncertainty, Biogeosciences , 4075–4101, 2020.
  • LUCE Qin, Z., Zhu, Y., Canadell, J. G., Chen, M., Li, T., Mishra, U., and Yuan, W.: Global spatially explicit carbon emissions from land-use change over the past six decades (1961–2020), One Earth, 7, 835–847, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.oneear.2024.04.002, 2024
  • FAO-PEAT Conchedda, G. and Tubiello, F. N.: Drainage of organic soils and GHG emissions: validation with country data, Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 12, 3113–3137, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-12-3113-2020, 2020. FAOSTAT Drained organic soils, available at (http://www.fao.org/faostat/en/#data/GV), 2024
  • LPX-Bern-PEAT Müller, J. and Joos, F.: Committed and projected future changes in global peatlands – continued transient model simulations since the Last Glacial Maximum, Biogeosciences, 18, 3657–3687, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-18-3657-2021, 2021.
  • ORCHIDEE-PEAT Qiu, C., Ciais, P., Zhu, D., Guenet, B., Peng, S., Petrescu, A. M. R., Lauerwald, R., Makowski, D., Gallego-Sala, A. V., Charman, D. J., and Brewer, S. C.: Large historical carbon emissions from cultivated northern peatlands, Sci. Adv., 7, eabf1332, https://doi.org/10.1126/sciadv.abf1332, 2021.
  • CABLE-POP Haverd, V., Smith, B., Nieradzik, L., Briggs, P. R., Woodgate, W., Trudinger, C. M., Canadell, J. G., and Cuntz, M.: A new version of the CABLE land surface model (Subversion revision r4601) incorporating land use and land cover change, woody vegetation demography, and a novel optimisation-based approach to plant coordination of photosynthesis, Geosci. Model Dev., 11, 2995-3026, 2018.
  • CLASSIC Melton, J. R., Arora, V. K., Wisernig-cojoc, E., Seiler, C., Fortier, M. and Chan, E.: CLASSIC v1.0: the open-source community successor to the Canadian Land Surface Scheme ( CLASS ) and the Canadian Terrestrial Ecosystem Model ( CTEM ) – Part 1: Model framework and site-level performance, , 2825–2850, 2020.
  • CLM6.0 Lawrence, D., Fisher, R., Koven, C., Oleson, K., Swenson, S., et al.: The Community Land Model version 5: Description of new features, benchmarking, and impact of forcing uncertainty, JAMES, accepted, 2019
  • DLEM Tian, H., G. Chen, C. Lu, X. Xu, D. J. Hayes, W. Ren, S. Pan, D.N. Huntzinger, S.C. Wofsy: North American terrestrial CO₂ uptake largely offset by CH4 and N2O emissions: Toward a full accounting of the greenhouse gas budget, Climatic Change, 129:423-426, 2015
  • EDv3 Ma, L., Hurtt, G., Ott, L., Sahajpal, R., Fisk, J., Lamb, R., Tang, H., Flanagan, S., Chini, L., Chatterjee, A., and Sullivan, J.: Global evaluation of the Ecosystem Demography model (ED v3.0), Geosci. Model Dev., 15, 1971–1994, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-1971-2022, 2022.
  • ELM Yang, X., Thornton, P., Ricciuto, D., Wang, Y., and Hoffman, F.: Global evaluation of terrestrial biogeochemistry in the Energy Exascale Earth System Model (E3SM) and the role of the phosphorus cycle in the historical terrestrial carbon balance, Biogeosciences, 20, 2813–2836, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-20-2813-2023, 2023.
  • IBIS Xia JZ, Ren PY, Wang XH, Liu D, Chen XZ, Dan L, He B, He HL, Ju WM, Linag MQ, Lu XJ, Peng J, Qin ZC, Xia JZ, Zheng B, Wei J, Yue X, Yu GR, Piao SL, Yuan WP. 2024. The carbon budget of China: 1980–2021. Science Bulletin, 69, 114-124.
  • iMAPLE Yue, X., Zhou, H., Tian, C., Ma, Y., Hu, Y., Gong, C., Zheng, H., and Liao, H.: Development and evaluation of the interactive Model for Air Pollution and Land Ecosystems (iMAPLE) version 1.0, Geosci Model Dev, 17, 4621-4642, 2024.
  • ISAM Shu, S., Jain, A. K., Koven, C. D., and Mishra, U.: Estimation of Permafrost SOC Stock and Turnover Time Using a Land Surface Model With Vertical Heterogeneity of Permafrost Soils, Global Biogeochem. Cy., 34, e2020GB006585, https://doi.org/10.1029/2020GB006585, 2020.
  • ISBA-CTRIP Delire, C., Séférian, R., Decharme, B., Alkama, R., Calvet, J.-C., Carrer, D., Gibelin, A.-L., Joetzjer, E., Morel, X., Rocher, M., and Tzanos, D.: The Global Land Carbon Cycle Simulated With ISBA-CTRIP: Improvements Over the Last Decade, J. Adv. Model. Earth Syst., 12, e2019MS001886, https://doi.org/10.1029/2019MS001886, 2020.
  • JSBACH Reick, C. H., Gayler, V., Goll, D., Hagemann, S., Heidkamp, M., Nabel, J. E. M. S., Raddatz, T., Roeckner, E., Schnur, R., and Wilkenskjeld, S.: JSBACH 3 - The land component of the MPI Earth System Model: documentation of version 3.2, https://doi.org/10.17617/2.3279802, 2021.
  • JULES-ES Wiltshire, A.,Burke, E., Chadburn, S., Jones, C., Cox, P., Davies-Barnard, T., Friedlingstein, P., Harper, A., Liddicoat, S., Sitch, S., Zaehle, S
  • LPJ-GUESS Smith, B., Warlind, D., Arneth, A., Hickler, T., Leadley, P., Siltberg, J., and Zaehle, S.: Implications of incorporating N cycling and N limitations on primary production in an individual-based dynamic vegetation model, Biogeosciences, 11, 2027-2054, 2014.
  • LPJml Schaphoff, S., von Bloh, W., Rammig, A., Thonicke, K., Biemans, H., Forkel, M., Gerten, D., Heinke, J., Jägermeyr, J., Knauer, J., Langerwisch, F., Lucht, W., Müller, C., Rolinski, S., and Waha, K.: LPJmL4 – a dynamic global vegetation model with managed land – Part 1: Model description, Geosci. Model Dev., 11, 1343–1375, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-11-1343-2018, 2018.
  • LPJwsl Poulter, B., Frank, D. C., Hodson, E. L., and Zimmermann, N. E.: Impacts of land cover and climate data selection on understanding terrestrial carbon dynamics and the CO₂ airborne fraction, Biogeosciences, 8, 2027-2036, 2011.
  • LPX-Bern Lienert, S. and Joos, F.: A Bayesian ensemble data assimilation to constrain model parameters and land-use carbon emissions, Biogeosciences, 15, 2909-2930, 2018.
  • OCN Zaehle, S. and Friend, A. D.: Carbon and nitrogen cycle dynamics in the O-CN land surface model: 1. Model description, site-scale evaluation, and sensitivity to parameter estimates, Global Biogeochemical Cycles, 24, GB1005, 2010
  • ORCHIDEEv3 Vuichard, N., Messina, P., Luyssaert, S., Guenet, B., Zaehle, S., Ghattas, J., Ipsl, L. and Paris-saclay, U.: Accounting for carbon and nitrogen interactions in the global terrestrial ecosystem model ORCHIDEE ( trunk version , rev 4999 ): multi-scale evaluation of gross primary production, , 4751–4779, 2019.
  • SDGVM Walker, A. P., Quaife, T., van Bodegom, P. M., De Kauwe, M. G., Keenan, T. F., Joiner, J., Lomas, M. R., MacBean, N., Xu, C. G., Yang, X. J., and Woodward, F. I.: The impact of alternative trait-scaling hypotheses for the maximum photosynthetic carboxylation rate (V-cmax) on global gross primary production, New Phytologist, 215, 1370-1386, 2017.
  • VISIT Kato, E., Kinoshita, T., Ito, A., Kawamiya, M. and Yamagata, Y.: Evaluation of spatially explicit emission scenario of land-use change and biomass burning using a process-based biogeochemical model, J. Land Use Sci., 8(1), 104–122, doi:10.1080/1747423x.2011.628705, 2013.

GCB

Net

1960
1970
1980
1990
2000
2010
2020
1
1.2
1.4
1.6
1.8
2
GtC

deforestation (total)

1960
1970
1980
1990
2000
2010
2020
1.6
1.7
1.8
1.9
2
2.1
GtC

forest regrowth (total)

1960
1970
1980
1990
2000
2010
2020
-1.2
-1.15
-1.1
-1.05
-1
-0.95
-0.9
-0.85
GtC

other transitions

1960
1970
1980
1990
2000
2010
2020
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.4
GtC

peat drainage & peat fires

1960
1970
1980
1990
2000
2010
2020
0.2
0.3
0.4
0.5
0.6
0.7
GtC

wood harvest & other forest management

1960
1970
1980
1990
2000
2010
2020
0.22
0.24
0.26
0.28
0.3
0.32
0.34
GtC

Unit GtC/year

YearNetdeforestation (total)forest regrowth (total)other transitionspeat drainage & peat fireswood harvest & other forest management
19592.11352.0479−0.82380.43900.23110.2192
19601.83021.8411−0.83290.41740.17920.2254
19611.86151.8336−0.83600.40440.22310.2364
19621.72781.7847−0.83940.38670.15440.2415
19631.68161.7562−0.84250.36080.16250.2445
19641.59901.7121−0.84540.33030.15230.2497
19651.53521.6604−0.84890.31030.16000.2535
19661.42541.6004−0.85250.27810.14290.2565
19671.47401.5947−0.85150.31210.16110.2577
19681.45531.5891−0.85230.29820.15800.2624
19691.59281.7391−0.85520.27180.17030.2669
19701.55411.6963−0.86030.23930.20790.2709
19711.39691.6139−0.85870.23350.13320.2749
19721.47121.6624−0.86170.23240.16150.2766
19731.43121.6424−0.86330.21430.15930.2786
19741.40241.6274−0.85830.20410.14730.2819
19751.38081.6207−0.86040.20410.13810.2784
19761.38761.6039−0.85850.18820.17060.2833
19771.50491.6699−0.86050.23450.17570.2852
19781.47741.6449−0.86100.23190.17310.2885
19791.27911.5439−0.86590.18560.12200.2935
19801.35581.5606−0.86510.17690.18590.2975
19811.31821.5493−0.86640.17760.16030.2974
19821.24011.5173−0.86790.15120.14290.2967
19831.30591.5518−0.87060.17390.15540.2953
19841.53911.7011−0.86960.17920.22830.3000
19851.44401.6160−0.87000.17160.22360.3028
19861.50851.6814−0.87430.16790.23050.3031
19871.45741.6599−0.88080.15110.21760.3095
19881.41131.6210−0.88340.14060.21850.3146
19891.35191.5718−0.88590.13730.20610.3227
19901.35821.5726−0.90280.15220.20450.3317
19911.35641.5990−0.91640.14200.18960.3422
19921.43501.6596−0.92530.13580.23220.3328
19931.35751.6726−0.93170.11790.18010.3185
19941.60741.8964−0.94400.10000.25160.3034
19951.48261.8500−0.95800.08880.20870.2932
19961.64101.8824−0.95840.08490.34370.2883
19972.02141.9266−0.96880.04940.73310.2811
19981.67702.0828−0.98510.05550.24770.2762
19991.63832.0566−0.99300.04210.25690.2757
20001.44571.9555−1.00750.03720.17650.2839
20011.30061.8635−1.02110.00360.17540.2792
20021.39961.8704−1.03810.03230.25170.2834
20031.65822.1140−1.05310.07200.23180.2934
20041.47491.9088−1.05900.07000.25380.3013
20051.33491.8419−1.07120.04660.21700.3006
20061.45531.7806−1.08370.05100.40510.3023
20071.25401.7889−1.09190.05630.19250.3083
20081.33201.8137−1.09500.09290.21210.3083
20091.43941.8430−1.10680.09690.31090.2954
20101.49781.9031−1.13810.16710.26470.3010
20111.44061.8689−1.14240.14770.25970.3067
20121.54251.9162−1.14490.12680.32560.3188
20131.39631.8604−1.15120.12310.25830.3057
20141.47281.8769−1.16920.12820.34260.2943
20151.50971.8465−1.17790.10990.45440.2769
20161.20261.7985−1.18830.10450.22250.2654
20171.15481.8005−1.19610.09480.19980.2558
20181.04931.7130−1.19800.05300.21430.2671
20191.03351.6652−1.20720.05150.25300.2709
20200.93861.6511−1.21340.03760.18900.2742
20210.96961.6864−1.21320.04020.17480.2814
20220.96641.6588−1.21300.03820.19810.2843
20230.98931.6599−1.21990.03820.22520.2859

Bookkeeping methods

BLUE

Net

1960
1970
1980
1990
2000
2010
2020
1.2
1.4
1.6
1.8
2
2.2
2.4
2.6
2.8
GtC

deforestation (total)

1960
1970
1980
1990
2000
2010
2020
1.6
1.8
2
2.2
2.4
2.6
2.8
GtC

forest regrowth (total)

1960
1970
1980
1990
2000
2010
2020
-1.35
-1.3
-1.25
-1.2
-1.15
-1.1
-1.05
GtC

other transitions

1960
1970
1980
1990
2000
2010
2020
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.4
GtC

wood harvest & other forest management

1960
1970
1980
1990
2000
2010
2020
0.52
0.54
0.56
0.58
0.6
0.62
0.64
0.66
GtC

BLUE - Unit GtC/year

YearNetdeforestation (total)forest regrowth (total)other transitionswood harvest & other forest management
19592.94232.8718−1.15420.49150.5020
19602.41792.4187−1.15220.45720.5150
19612.44402.4235−1.14710.40330.5411
19622.25002.3084−1.14360.37670.5542
19632.17772.2523−1.14000.33980.5632
19642.03622.1319−1.13630.31640.5718
19651.95432.0609−1.13540.29180.5771
19661.80281.9455−1.13010.26150.5829
19671.89161.9369−1.12540.32960.5894
19681.87001.9131−1.11960.32190.5966
19692.08332.1699−1.10890.25070.6013
19701.97732.0808−1.11950.20020.6079
19711.79861.9730−1.11270.19260.6126
19721.97282.1183−1.10630.18510.6141
19731.88952.0610−1.09820.15050.6170
19741.82602.0172−1.09040.13670.6153
19751.78021.9758−1.08360.14090.6090
19761.75861.9301−1.07530.12150.6116
19772.01362.1032−1.06660.18980.6114
19781.96952.0584−1.06260.18900.6117
19791.65891.8439−1.06310.14170.6143
19801.76011.8784−1.05630.13680.6153
19811.71901.8408−1.05320.15610.6150
19821.57711.7619−1.05200.11430.6100
19831.69751.8084−1.04520.16640.6124
19842.02372.0633−1.03860.15150.6191
19851.83241.8924−1.03240.12870.6201
19861.95932.0011−1.02650.13170.6226
19871.82531.8934−1.02460.11080.6281
19881.73901.8175−1.02750.09850.6320
19891.64851.7225−1.02990.10960.6403
19901.61041.6583−1.05590.15570.6478
19911.53311.6467−1.08130.13070.6474
19921.65961.7191−1.08750.15600.6399
19931.55041.7012−1.08950.13800.6207
19941.89262.0080−1.10320.12120.6150
19951.73951.9150−1.11860.13120.6031
19961.89461.9396−1.11270.12950.5944
19972.27001.9955−1.11770.07480.5844
19982.02392.2280−1.12780.09900.5771
19991.95942.1886−1.14540.08060.5786
20001.76002.0718−1.17130.08840.5945
20011.51721.8957−1.18870.04550.5894
20021.63921.9059−1.20830.09610.5937
20032.07062.2861−1.22450.16920.6080
20041.80872.0042−1.22220.16660.6063
20051.61131.8919−1.23480.13940.5978
20061.67771.7878−1.24770.13740.5951
20071.47011.7983−1.25020.12840.6012
20081.57051.8339−1.24730.17710.5948
20091.69151.8920−1.25870.16660.5807
20101.71011.9349−1.32390.24900.5854
20111.62921.8801−1.32280.22420.5879
20121.76101.9435−1.31140.20250.6008
20131.62081.8633−1.31540.19750.6170
20141.65911.8822−1.34040.19240.5822
20151.68661.8029−1.33780.16210.6050
20161.39501.7247−1.35050.15960.6386
20171.39081.7676−1.35830.15090.6309
20181.24551.6319−1.35130.08790.6626
20191.20351.5346−1.35600.09870.6732
20201.07111.4924−1.35830.07350.6745
20211.12371.5491−1.35700.07850.6783
20221.10971.5106−1.35560.07900.6776
20231.12211.4986−1.35420.07910.6734

H&C2023

Net

1960
1970
1980
1990
2000
2010
2020
0.6
0.8
1
1.2
1.4
GtC

deforestation (total)

1960
1970
1980
1990
2000
2010
2020
1.2
1.3
1.4
1.5
1.6
1.7
1.8
GtC

forest regrowth (total)

1960
1970
1980
1990
2000
2010
2020
-1
-0.9
-0.8
-0.7
-0.6
GtC

other transitions

1960
1970
1980
1990
2000
2010
2020
0
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.4
GtC

wood harvest & other forest management

1960
1970
1980
1990
2000
2010
2020
-0.2
-0.15
-0.1
-0.05
GtC

H&C2023 - Unit GtC/year

YearNetdeforestation (total)forest regrowth (total)other transitionswood harvest & other forest management
19591.10761.2683−0.56150.3816−0.2120
19601.08931.3044−0.56930.3923−0.2173
19611.15181.3236−0.57740.4048−0.2223
19621.08911.3439−0.58520.4039−0.2278
19631.08041.3440−0.59280.3999−0.2331
19641.03411.3428−0.60030.3742−0.2349
19650.98531.3127−0.60750.3544−0.2342
19660.91521.2986−0.61460.3213−0.2331
19670.90821.2759−0.62140.3230−0.2304
19680.85871.2636−0.62720.2932−0.2290
19690.87191.2736−0.63370.2888−0.2271
19700.89471.2740−0.63980.2796−0.2269
19710.80481.2713−0.64660.2695−0.2226
19720.79871.2606−0.65240.2497−0.2207
19730.76351.2564−0.65850.2239−0.2175
19740.73191.2441−0.66410.2195−0.2149
19750.71831.2506−0.66950.2104−0.2112
19760.73311.2434−0.67380.2055−0.2126
19770.71971.2281−0.67870.2005−0.2060
19780.69961.2103−0.68390.2039−0.2039
19790.60791.1971−0.68990.1780−0.1993
19800.64941.1936−0.69620.1584−0.1923
19810.61911.2106−0.70270.1397−0.1887
19820.60981.2283−0.70970.1368−0.1885
19830.63981.2578−0.71570.1284−0.1861
19840.77331.2919−0.72070.1617−0.1879
19850.77701.2834−0.72500.1783−0.1833
19860.80981.2975−0.73030.1949−0.1828
19870.84301.3474−0.73630.1900−0.1758
19880.83471.3586−0.74390.1734−0.1719
19890.78981.3494−0.75310.1470−0.1596
19900.83771.4201−0.76710.1335−0.1532
19910.90071.5143−0.78190.1207−0.1419
19920.99801.5989−0.79780.1013−0.1366
19930.99571.6795−0.81410.0846−0.1345
19941.10151.7650−0.83080.0549−0.1392
19951.03551.7783−0.84590.0275−0.1331
19961.17561.8148−0.86000.0019−0.1248
19971.57401.8401−0.8751−0.0068−0.1173
19981.08411.8570−0.8897−0.0277−0.1032
19991.06821.8472−0.9039−0.0356−0.0964
20000.91511.7960−0.9171−0.0552−0.0851
20010.88021.7658−0.9299−0.0539−0.0772
20020.90581.7223−0.9415−0.0547−0.0720
20030.83321.6712−0.9513−0.0444−0.0742
20040.82861.6550−0.9605−0.0511−0.0685
20050.78391.6518−0.9705−0.0486−0.0658
20060.98581.6663−0.9797−0.0394−0.0666
20070.78821.6800−0.9881−0.0338−0.0624
20080.83991.6922−0.9967−0.0059−0.0617
20090.98351.7224−1.00440.0184−0.0637
20100.99281.7494−1.01210.0619−0.0711
20110.96031.7418−1.01770.0442−0.0676
20121.01881.7375−1.02150.0414−0.0643
20130.95811.7411−1.02610.0444−0.0597
20141.04151.7490−1.03080.0389−0.0581
20151.14551.7584−1.03520.0279−0.0600
20160.82571.7105−1.0416−0.0003−0.0654
20170.73381.6542−1.0482−0.0119−0.0600
20180.68871.6128−1.0547−0.0284−0.0553
20190.71911.6038−1.0611−0.0403−0.0363
20200.65591.5996−1.0674−0.0472−0.0181
20210.58261.5404−1.0674−0.0472−0.0181
20220.61181.5464−1.0674−0.0472−0.0181
20230.66151.5689−1.0674−0.0472−0.0181

OSCAR

Net

1960
1970
1980
1990
2000
2010
2020
1.2
1.4
1.6
1.8
2
GtC

deforestation (total)

1960
1970
1980
1990
2000
2010
2020
1.7
1.8
1.9
2
2.1
2.2
2.3
GtC

forest regrowth (total)

1960
1970
1980
1990
2000
2010
2020
-1.5
-1.4
-1.3
-1.2
-1.1
-1
-0.9
-0.8
-0.7
GtC

other transitions

1960
1970
1980
1990
2000
2010
2020
0.1
0.15
0.2
0.25
0.3
0.35
0.4
GtC

wood harvest & other forest management

1960
1970
1980
1990
2000
2010
2020
0.08
0.09
0.1
0.11
0.12
0.13
0.14
0.15
GtC

OSCAR- Unit GtC/year

YearNetdeforestation (total)forest regrowth (total)other transitionswood harvest & other forest management
19591.81781.7715−0.69910.42320.0910
19601.71891.7547−0.72870.41590.0979
19611.71151.7165−0.73530.40800.0992
19621.61661.7196−0.74720.38680.1029
19631.58691.7166−0.75610.36000.1039
19641.52621.7058−0.76600.32350.1105
19651.48251.6810−0.77450.30070.1153
19661.41351.6562−0.79050.28840.1164
19671.39391.6263−0.78910.28620.1094
19681.38381.6285−0.79700.27750.1168
19691.45441.6976−0.81370.28080.1193
19701.54481.7328−0.81720.30510.1163
19711.41311.6703−0.81630.30960.1163
19721.40071.6523−0.83380.30420.1166
19731.41581.6752−0.84900.31970.1106
19741.41321.6590−0.83860.32560.1199
19751.40561.6719−0.85290.33880.1098
19761.42751.6611−0.85570.33090.1206
19771.43931.6810−0.87350.33910.1170
19781.44271.6910−0.87920.33630.1215
19791.32721.6664−0.89570.30900.1255
19801.36861.6629−0.89720.29010.1269
19811.34261.6717−0.90170.29220.1202
19821.29121.6570−0.90560.27400.1230
19831.30241.6884−0.92020.26370.1151
19841.50151.7670−0.91330.29250.1271
19851.52131.7898−0.91840.29330.1331
19861.48401.7995−0.93270.26230.1244
19871.49321.8500−0.95590.25120.1302
19881.47611.8504−0.95660.23680.1271
19891.44061.8385−0.95530.22240.1290
19901.44441.8778−0.97870.20560.1351
19911.43371.8813−0.98560.19820.1502
19921.44261.8760−0.99580.17980.1503
19931.39591.9141−1.00640.16110.1470
19941.52892.0161−1.02120.15170.1309
19951.51482.0838−1.03910.14070.1206
19961.65562.0953−1.03480.11970.1316
19972.06362.1443−1.05580.12370.1184
19981.64432.2408−1.08930.13830.1068
19991.71482.2856−1.08250.15040.1044
20001.58472.2494−1.09490.14700.1066
20011.49732.2069−1.11680.13160.1003
20021.54132.2100−1.14390.13370.0898
20031.60032.2947−1.16830.14580.0963
20041.61222.2956−1.18850.14560.1057
20051.45502.2203−1.21290.12780.1029
20061.61532.2124−1.23200.12610.1036
20071.37422.2144−1.25090.12220.0961
20081.41672.2283−1.25870.13190.1031
20091.51192.2433−1.28720.15650.0885
20101.56122.3066−1.30820.20880.0893
20111.55132.3181−1.31730.19660.0942
20121.55382.3120−1.33990.15150.1046
20131.47402.3201−1.35640.14140.1106
20141.53762.3192−1.38310.15580.1031
20151.60422.3352−1.41740.14580.0862
20161.32252.3210−1.43420.13180.0815
20171.27842.3093−1.44510.12980.0846
20181.22912.2841−1.45930.10050.0896
20191.19772.2611−1.48490.07760.0909
20201.09912.2640−1.50250.07290.0757
20211.10472.2811−1.50620.07100.0839
20221.12032.2858−1.51020.06720.0794
20231.09932.2837−1.54220.06120.0714

Peat drainage & Peat fires

FAO

1960
1970
1980
1990
2000
2010
2020
0.2
0.3
0.4
0.5
0.6
0.7
GtC

LPX-Bern

1960
1970
1980
1990
2000
2010
2020
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.4
0.5
0.6
GtC

ORCHIDEE

1960
1970
1980
1990
2000
2010
2020
0.2
0.3
0.4
0.5
0.6
0.7
GtC

Unit GtC/year

YearFAOLPX-BernORCHIDEE
19590.14310.29230.2580
19600.14310.18470.2097
19610.14310.31600.2103
19620.14310.11820.2018
19630.14310.13680.2074
19640.14310.09790.2158
19650.14310.14850.1883
19660.14310.08800.1977
19670.14310.13540.2046
19680.14310.14070.1901
19690.14310.17360.1941
19700.14310.27610.2045
19710.14310.06690.1896
19720.14310.14340.1980
19730.14310.15440.1803
19740.14310.10720.1915
19750.14310.07610.1950
19760.14310.16710.2017
19770.14310.19800.1861
19780.14310.19950.1766
19790.14310.05450.1683
19800.14310.22740.1872
19810.15200.14080.1880
19820.16090.07090.1968
19830.16980.09820.1982
19840.17870.23910.2671
19850.18760.22120.2620
19860.19650.20910.2858
19870.20540.18110.2664
19880.21430.16750.2737
19890.22320.11170.2832
19900.23210.11320.2683
19910.23490.08800.2460
19920.23760.16890.2901
19930.24050.05190.2481
19940.24310.22110.2904
19950.24740.10850.2703
19960.24990.49610.2851
19970.73950.68770.7720
19980.21650.24290.2837
19990.22640.27050.2738
20000.21260.10150.2154
20010.22400.07480.2273
20020.30890.13660.3096
20030.23400.20210.2593
20040.26590.20770.2876
20050.25100.12160.2783
20060.39400.38210.4393
20070.21900.13090.2276
20080.21980.17820.2382
20090.32030.28000.3323
20100.22030.33470.2392
20110.25690.22190.3003
20120.25730.40580.3138
20130.24570.24760.2817
20140.32440.33150.3719
20150.42480.49230.4460
20160.22880.20310.2356
20170.22560.14280.2308
20180.24220.16000.2407
20190.31710.12750.3145
20200.22820.10840.2304
20210.22810.07720.2191
20220.22700.14620.2211
20230.25410.17330.2482

Individual models (NET) - Does not include peat emissions

CABLE-POP

1960
1970
1980
1990
2000
2010
2020
1.2
1.4
1.6
1.8
2
2.2
2.4
2.6
GtC

CLASSIC

1960
1970
1980
1990
2000
2010
2020
0.6
0.8
1
1.2
1.4
1.6
1.8
GtC

CLM6.0

1960
1970
1980
1990
2000
2010
2020
2
2.2
2.4
2.6
2.8
3
3.2
3.4
3.6
GtC

DLEM

1960
1970
1980
1990
2000
2010
2020
1.8
2
2.2
2.4
2.6
2.8
GtC

ED

1960
1970
1980
1990
2000
2010
2020
2.2
2.4
2.6
2.8
3
3.2
GtC

ELM

1960
1970
1980
1990
2000
2010
2020
1.4
1.6
1.8
2
2.2
2.4
2.6
2.8
3
GtC

IBIS

1960
1970
1980
1990
2000
2010
2020
0.6
0.8
1
1.2
1.4
1.6
1.8
GtC

iMAPLE

1960
1970
1980
1990
2000
2010
2020
0.5
1
1.5
2
2.5
3
3.5
4
GtC

ISAM

1960
1970
1980
1990
2000
2010
2020
1.4
1.6
1.8
2
2.2
2.4
2.6
2.8
3
GtC

ISBA-CTRIP

1960
1970
1980
1990
2000
2010
2020
0.6
0.8
1
1.2
1.4
1.6
1.8
GtC

JSBACH

1960
1970
1980
1990
2000
2010
2020
1.2
1.4
1.6
1.8
2
2.2
GtC

JULES

1960
1970
1980
1990
2000
2010
2020
1.1
1.2
1.3
1.4
1.5
1.6
GtC

LPJ-GUESS

1960
1970
1980
1990
2000
2010
2020
1
1.5
2
2.5
3
GtC

LPJml

1960
1970
1980
1990
2000
2010
2020
1
1.2
1.4
1.6
1.8
2
2.2
GtC

LPJwsl

1960
1970
1980
1990
2000
2010
2020
0.8
1
1.2
1.4
1.6
1.8
2
GtC

LPX

1960
1970
1980
1990
2000
2010
2020
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1
1.2
1.4
GtC

OCN

1960
1970
1980
1990
2000
2010
2020
1.4
1.6
1.8
2
2.2
2.4
2.6
GtC

Orchidee

1960
1970
1980
1990
2000
2010
2020
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1
1.2
1.4
GtC

SDGVM

1960
1970
1980
1990
2000
2010
2020
0.8
1
1.2
1.4
1.6
1.8
2
GtC

VISIT

1960
1970
1980
1990
2000
2010
2020
1.4
1.6
1.8
2
GtC

MMM (multi-model mean)

1960
1970
1980
1990
2000
2010
2020
1.3
1.4
1.5
1.6
1.7
1.8
1.9
2
GtC

Model Spread (sd)

1960
1970
1980
1990
2000
2010
2020
0.5
0.6
0.7
0.8
GtC

Unit GtC/year

YearCABLE-POPCLASSICCLM6.0DLEMEDELMIBISiMAPLEISAMISBA-CTRIPJSBACHJULESLPJ-GUESSLPJmlLPJwslLPXOCNOrchideeSDGVMVISITMMM (multi-model mean)Model Spread (sd)
19592.21001.14003.40002.67002.46002.94001.59002.36002.50001.55001.30001.03001.84002.16542.00001.23002.37001.19002.05002.15002.00730.6461
19601.89000.87003.73002.91002.63002.02001.89004.25003.09001.66001.25001.20002.13002.22991.27001.55002.47001.41001.18001.64002.06350.8939
19611.34001.19002.47002.64002.33002.11001.38000.79001.99000.90001.13001.12001.53001.50891.31001.08002.63001.15001.09001.71001.56990.5872
19622.08001.09002.56002.32002.32001.64001.35001.34002.14000.98001.33001.24001.55001.80391.23001.01002.21001.24001.27001.84001.62720.4943
19632.05000.67002.34001.92002.34001.85001.20001.01002.10000.89001.35001.06001.02001.57741.07000.39001.91001.05001.06001.73001.42940.5690
19641.78000.99002.54001.96002.28001.58001.06000.86001.91000.98001.37001.10001.52001.91871.02000.89001.93001.13001.06001.62001.47490.5006
19651.62000.93002.21001.73002.44001.64001.17000.73001.64000.83001.39001.18001.41001.43350.81000.67001.96000.96000.90001.64001.36470.5015
19661.52001.19002.05002.02002.27001.52001.05000.77001.78000.91001.31001.11001.19001.89030.97000.35001.79000.92000.94001.47001.35100.5003
19671.92000.92002.29001.91002.20002.18001.06000.50001.53000.68001.14001.16001.50001.45981.10000.68001.70000.89000.89001.68001.36950.5467
19681.82001.04002.40002.28002.57001.90001.10001.39002.13001.04001.30001.16001.78001.93471.08000.62001.56000.93001.32001.49001.54220.5389
19691.17001.32001.98001.91002.17002.15000.99001.39001.60001.06001.54001.03001.60001.63201.40000.57001.82000.92001.52001.84001.48060.4328
19701.64001.23002.59001.99002.31001.89001.22001.98002.01001.91001.49001.14001.43001.71011.31000.95001.72001.04001.27001.65001.62400.4360
19711.58001.43002.36002.48002.64001.55001.21001.27001.83000.76001.41001.37001.98001.79821.30001.02001.96000.89001.13001.62001.57940.5146
19721.89001.30002.06001.85002.55001.71000.91000.59001.38000.57001.42001.18001.60001.78291.14000.77001.72000.74001.21001.63001.40010.5241
19731.36001.57002.28002.22002.33001.81000.88001.03001.78001.02001.42001.24001.80001.24711.17000.83001.38000.86001.38001.59001.45990.4617
19741.65001.44002.38002.56002.41001.48001.03001.04002.08000.87001.47001.37002.20001.35531.20000.97001.92001.07001.14001.60001.56180.5253
19751.99001.15002.34002.24002.72002.17001.17001.11001.74000.87001.40001.33001.63001.74541.08000.43002.04000.76001.33001.62001.54330.5872
19761.82001.22002.44002.57002.62001.46001.07001.25001.77000.68001.19001.37001.59001.74231.35000.77002.02000.83001.16001.66001.52910.5637
19771.85001.26002.33001.82002.36002.22000.92000.84001.36000.76001.47001.11000.92001.40451.25000.28001.78000.42001.65001.70001.38520.5921
19781.77001.87002.60002.43002.28002.02000.96001.69002.10001.23001.33001.35002.04001.42451.32001.07001.93000.94001.67001.68001.68520.4792
19791.65001.14002.28002.20002.57002.00000.96001.35001.77001.17001.84001.33001.43001.72630.72000.77002.01000.62000.99001.48001.50030.5515
19801.88001.07002.13001.85002.53002.06000.80000.62001.27000.67001.40001.20000.67001.10030.84000.65001.91000.42001.05001.76001.29400.6110
19811.64001.21002.48002.34002.55001.77001.10001.21001.67000.96001.67001.36001.61001.17870.95000.83001.61000.66001.02001.45001.46340.5306
19821.94001.07002.26002.02002.43001.37001.01000.91001.47000.85001.40001.54001.58001.83420.94000.66001.96000.73000.91001.47001.41770.5275
19831.40001.05002.39001.82002.24002.02000.78000.69001.28000.65001.76001.30000.63001.06110.81000.96001.45000.32001.00001.70001.26560.5750
19842.42001.39002.17002.19002.22001.98001.11001.25001.84001.03001.67001.37001.82001.56201.20000.86001.78000.63001.21001.95001.58260.4984
19851.70001.34002.60002.27002.50001.98001.40001.82002.14001.15001.60001.53002.16001.75651.00001.13001.83000.93001.29001.66001.68930.4828
19861.82001.34002.69002.21002.59002.28001.29000.93001.59000.75001.63001.50001.69001.60451.15000.87002.21000.65001.57001.60001.59820.5811
19871.94001.30003.01001.92002.53001.92001.21001.34001.53000.88001.55001.23001.18001.49510.96000.81001.60000.53001.26001.44001.48180.5792
19881.84000.62002.77002.27002.45002.02001.21001.15001.65000.67001.67001.22000.93001.30420.91000.63001.81000.65001.01001.64001.42120.6373
19891.84001.25002.49002.85002.77001.70001.47001.00001.77000.80001.74001.40001.86001.52760.78000.51002.08000.69001.03001.59001.55740.6609
19901.46001.75002.36002.12002.21001.99001.29000.94001.44000.84001.54001.35001.82001.85791.17000.61001.77000.47001.40001.40001.48940.5149
19911.83001.37002.40001.98002.23002.18001.13000.69001.63000.79001.49001.45001.34001.59381.03000.61001.75000.72000.98001.57001.43820.5329
19921.83001.30002.41002.32002.51001.80001.26001.16002.08001.12001.63001.58002.12001.71641.06000.99001.66000.71000.83001.72001.59030.5284
19931.59001.68002.48002.66002.39001.91001.27001.49002.00001.03001.39001.39002.34001.91761.19001.04001.77000.92001.04001.55001.65240.5232
19941.69001.00002.49001.77002.27002.94001.25001.04001.60000.72001.40001.28000.81001.37861.25000.42002.14000.75001.49001.77001.47290.6369
19951.77001.07002.92002.38002.50002.27001.45002.34002.39001.35001.67001.29001.47001.56031.03000.87001.65000.90001.30001.60001.68900.5884
19962.02001.43002.40002.56002.61001.29001.44001.76002.06000.90001.59001.38002.41001.77741.29001.01002.38000.78001.61001.79001.72440.5536
19971.70001.34002.99002.52002.51002.27001.31002.17002.26001.14001.78001.32001.94001.63801.38001.00001.99000.67001.57001.72001.76090.5777
19981.58001.87003.00001.85002.72002.29001.21001.80002.00001.38002.22001.06001.28001.34831.48000.57002.02000.63001.77001.76001.69190.6133
19992.78001.06003.50002.63002.83002.44001.91003.01002.79001.44002.10001.52001.77001.64641.47000.89002.40001.14001.15001.93002.02030.7447
20001.83001.17003.11002.96002.79002.29001.88002.29002.89001.50001.96001.45001.88001.25211.33001.05002.75001.02000.96001.81001.90860.7042
20011.88001.31002.81002.30002.90002.34001.70001.52002.15001.27001.78001.49001.58001.94091.28000.57002.53000.70000.90001.48001.72150.6485
20022.10001.05002.69001.62002.76002.53001.17001.16001.33000.93001.70001.29000.94001.53621.16000.25002.16000.47000.86001.44001.45730.6947
20031.53001.07002.62002.18002.94002.78001.30001.87001.93001.17002.23001.31001.48001.57321.54001.23001.81000.76001.69001.88001.74470.5786
20041.97001.49003.58002.69002.81002.14001.77002.92002.98001.59002.04001.38003.30001.92961.39001.54001.95000.52001.15001.67002.04050.7811
20051.83001.34003.27001.99002.99002.33001.20001.33001.87000.92001.75001.25001.24001.52171.13000.63002.49000.74001.25001.52001.62960.7026
20062.15001.00002.76002.29002.88002.35001.23001.44002.04000.84001.80001.32001.38001.18221.25000.58002.15000.58000.99001.64001.59260.6820
20071.70001.24002.51002.10002.48002.71000.97001.05001.92000.90001.88001.33001.36001.51271.08000.33001.96000.54001.03001.65001.51260.6507
20082.20001.03002.68002.55002.79002.20001.20001.26002.27000.69002.05001.55002.18001.11941.34001.05002.10000.58000.91001.74001.67450.6844
20091.46001.51002.62002.31002.69002.09001.20001.60002.05000.95001.99001.37001.91001.17461.30000.81002.00000.51001.23001.66001.62170.5831
20101.48001.86002.90002.23002.70003.01001.01001.87002.49000.97002.10001.09001.79001.07971.35000.92001.72000.58001.67001.78001.73000.6910
20112.38001.25002.95002.57002.75002.31001.27002.41003.04001.12001.98001.62002.97001.65151.37000.86002.15000.68000.79001.69001.89060.7657
20122.30000.81002.68002.07002.87002.57001.13001.05001.98000.49001.66001.36000.78001.47611.22000.19002.28000.68001.20001.57001.51830.7668
20131.50001.76002.91002.38002.71002.45001.19001.81002.41001.18002.00001.49002.35001.30031.50000.88001.79000.40001.22001.60001.74150.6461
20141.42001.93002.65002.58002.70002.62001.04000.88002.28000.73001.71001.35002.58001.46881.52001.05001.97000.43001.26001.42001.67940.7032
20151.72001.54003.06001.98002.92002.65000.76001.46002.17000.91001.74001.36001.57001.23011.39001.01001.69000.52001.08001.35001.60550.6797
20161.45001.78002.65002.20002.57001.96000.78000.96001.99000.84001.80001.04001.60001.04401.30000.95001.47000.41001.48001.69001.49820.5993
20171.88001.83002.61002.19002.65002.15001.07000.91002.14000.91001.59001.33002.54001.38371.56001.02001.80000.63001.11001.48001.63920.6059
20181.85001.00002.43002.29003.20001.95000.84001.19002.29000.75001.80001.38001.92000.95431.19000.98001.99000.73001.15001.66001.57720.6680
20191.79001.36002.47002.12002.75002.48000.51000.77001.62000.58001.64001.15001.87000.97091.30000.77001.47000.34000.82001.21001.39950.6939
20201.42001.24002.46002.01002.44002.03000.60000.45001.96000.63001.59001.08001.47001.18151.12000.77001.63000.21000.71001.53001.32660.6477
20211.86000.91002.21002.36002.71001.91000.83000.44001.80000.58001.87001.33001.57000.97481.08000.68001.58000.31000.83001.57001.37020.6766
20221.99000.78002.64002.33002.74002.24000.86001.00002.22000.60001.78001.41001.72001.07201.22000.86001.58000.69000.96001.73001.52110.6737
20232.15000.52002.58001.89002.67001.97000.57000.68001.37000.53001.52001.11001.15000.82240.84000.39001.58000.03001.05001.47001.24460.7346