Global Carbon Budget 2024

Published: March 14, 2025

Citation: Friedlingstein et al., Global Carbon Budget 2024. https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-17-965-2025

Data: Global Carbon Project. (2024). Supplemental data of Global Carbon Budget 2024 (Version 1.0) [Data set]. Global Carbon Project. https://doi.org/10.18160/gcp-2024

Changelog:
  • 2023 total anthropogenic CO₂ emission (including the cement carbonation sink) of 11.1 ± 0.9 GtC/year (40.6 ± 3.2 GtCO₂/year)
  • 2023 fossil CO₂ emissions increased by 1.3% relative to 2022 to 10.3 ± 0.5 GtC/year (10.1 ± 0.5 GtC/year when the cement carbonation sink is included)
  • 2023 global atmospheric CO₂ concentration: 419.3 ± 0.1 ppm
  • remaining carbon budget for a 50 % likelihood to limit global warming to 1.5, 1.7, and 2 °C has been reduced to 65 GtC (235 GtCO₂), 160 GtC (585 GtCO₂), and 305 GtC (1110 GtCO₂),

Terrestrial CO₂ sink (positive values represent a flux from the atmosphere to the land)

All values in billion tonnes of carbon per year (GtC/yr), for the globe. For values in billion tonnes of carbon dioxide per year (GtCO₂/yr), multiply the numbers below by 3.664.
1 billion tonnes C = 1 petagram of carbon (10^15 gC) = 1 gigatonne C = 3.664 billion tonnes of CO₂
Methods: The terrestrial sink (uncertainty of ±0.5 GtC/yr on average) is estimated from the average of 20 Dynamic Global Vegetation Models (calculated from simulation S2; see Appendix C4.1 in Friedlingstein et al. 2023) that reproduce the observed mean total land uptake of the 1990s.
Cite as: Friedlingstein et al (2023; see summary tab).
Cite individual estimates as:
  • CABLE-POP Haverd, V., Smith, B., Nieradzik, L., Briggs, P. R., Woodgate, W., Trudinger, C. M., Canadell, J. G., and Cuntz, M.: A new version of the CABLE land surface model (Subversion revision r4601) incorporating land use and land cover change, woody vegetation demography, and a novel optimisation-based approach to plant coordination of photosynthesis, Geosci. Model Dev., 11, 2995-3026, 2018.
  • CLASSIC Melton, J. R., Arora, V. K., Wisernig-cojoc, E., Seiler, C., Fortier, M. and Chan, E.: CLASSIC v1.0: the open-source community successor to the Canadian Land Surface Scheme ( CLASS ) and the Canadian Terrestrial Ecosystem Model ( CTEM ) – Part 1: Model framework and site-level performance, , 2825–2850, 2020.
  • CLM5.0 Lawrence, D., Fisher, R., Koven, C., Oleson, K., Swenson, S., et al.: The Community Land Model version 5: Description of new features, benchmarking, and impact of forcing uncertainty, JAMES, accepted, 2019
  • DLEM Tian, H., G. Chen, C. Lu, X. Xu, D. J. Hayes, W. Ren, S. Pan, D.N. Huntzinger, S.C. Wofsy: North American terrestrial CO₂ uptake largely offset by CH4 and N2O emissions: Toward a full accounting of the greenhouse gas budget, Climatic Change, 129:423-426, 2015
  • ED Ma, L., Hurtt, G., Ott, L., Sahajpal, R., Fisk, J., Lamb, R., Tang, H., Flanagan, S., Chini, L., Chatterjee, A., and Sullivan, J.: Global evaluation of the Ecosystem Demography model (ED v3.0), Geosci. Model Dev., 15, 1971–1994, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-1971-2022, 2022.
  • ELM Yang, X., Thornton, P., Ricciuto, D., Wang, Y., and Hoffman, F.: Global evaluation of terrestrial biogeochemistry in the Energy Exascale Earth System Model (E3SM) and the role of the phosphorus cycle in the historical terrestrial carbon balance, Biogeosciences, 20, 2813–2836, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-20-2813-2023, 2023.
  • IBIS Yuan WP, Liu D, Dong WJ, Liu SG, Zhou GS, Yu GR, Zhao TB, Feng JM, Ma ZG, Chen JQ, Chen Y, Chen SP, Han SJ, Huang JP, Li LH, Liu HZ, Liu SM, Ma MG, Wang YF, Xia JZ, Xu WF, Zhang Q, Zhao XQ, Zhao L. 2014. Multiyear precipitation reduction strongly decreases carbon uptake over northern China. Journal of Geophysical Research: Biogeosciences, 119, 881-896.
  • ISAM Shu, S., Jain, A. K., Koven, C. D., and Mishra, U.: Estimation of Permafrost SOC Stock and Turnover Time Using a Land Surface Model With Vertical Heterogeneity of Permafrost Soils, Global Biogeochem. Cy., 34, e2020GB006585, https://doi.org/10.1029/2020GB006585, 2020.
  • ISBA-CTRIP Delire, C., Séférian, R., Decharme, B., Alkama, R., Calvet, J.-C., Carrer, D., Gibelin, A.-L., Joetzjer, E., Morel, X., Rocher, M., and Tzanos, D.: The Global Land Carbon Cycle Simulated With ISBA-CTRIP: Improvements Over the Last Decade, J. Adv. Model. Earth Syst., 12, e2019MS001886, https://doi.org/10.1029/2019MS001886, 2020.
  • JSBACH Reick, C. H., Gayler, V., Goll, D., Hagemann, S., Heidkamp, M., Nabel, J. E. M. S., Raddatz, T., Roeckner, E., Schnur, R., and Wilkenskjeld, S.: JSBACH 3 - The land component of the MPI Earth System Model: documentation of version 3.2, https://doi.org/10.17617/2.3279802, 2021.
  • JULES-ES Wiltshire, A.,Burke, E., Chadburn, S., Jones, C., Cox, P., Davies-Barnard, T., Friedlingstein, P., Harper, A., Liddicoat, S., Sitch, S., Zaehle, S
  • LPJ-GUESS Smith, B., Warlind, D., Arneth, A., Hickler, T., Leadley, P., Siltberg, J., and Zaehle, S.: Implications of incorporating N cycling and N limitations on primary production in an individual-based dynamic vegetation model, Biogeosciences, 11, 2027-2054, 2014.
  • LPJwsl Poulter, B., Frank, D. C., Hodson, E. L., and Zimmermann, N. E.: Impacts of land cover and climate data selection on understanding terrestrial carbon dynamics and the CO₂ airborne fraction, Biogeosciences, 8, 2027-2036, 2011.
  • LPJml Schaphoff, S., von Bloh, W., Rammig, A., Thonicke, K., Biemans, H., Forkel, M., Gerten, D., Heinke, J., Jägermeyr, J., Knauer, J., Langerwisch, F., Lucht, W., Müller, C., Rolinski, S., and Waha, K.: LPJmL4 – a dynamic global vegetation model with managed land – Part 1: Model description, Geosci. Model Dev., 11, 1343–1375, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-11-1343-2018, 2018.
  • LPX-Bern Lienert, S. and Joos, F.: A Bayesian ensemble data assimilation to constrain model parameters and land-use carbon emissions, Biogeosciences, 15, 2909-2930, 2018.
  • OCNv2 Zaehle, S. and Friend, A. D.: Carbon and nitrogen cycle dynamics in the O-CN land surface model: 1. Model description, site-scale evaluation, and sensitivity to parameter estimates, Global Biogeochemical Cycles, 24, GB1005, 2010
  • ORCHIDEEv3 Vuichard, N., Messina, P., Luyssaert, S., Guenet, B., Zaehle, S., Ghattas, J., Ipsl, L. and Paris-saclay, U.: Accounting for carbon and nitrogen interactions in the global terrestrial ecosystem model ORCHIDEE ( trunk version , rev 4999 ): multi-scale evaluation of gross primary production, , 4751–4779, 2019.
  • SDGVM Walker, A. P., Quaife, T., van Bodegom, P. M., De Kauwe, M. G., Keenan, T. F., Joiner, J., Lomas, M. R., MacBean, N., Xu, C. G., Yang, X. J., and Woodward, F. I.: The impact of alternative trait-scaling hypotheses for the maximum photosynthetic carboxylation rate (V-cmax) on global gross primary production, New Phytologist, 215, 1370-1386, 2017.
  • VISIT Kato, E., Kinoshita, T., Ito, A., Kawamiya, M. and Yamagata, Y.: Evaluation of spatially explicit emission scenario of land-use change and biomass burning using a process-based biogeochemical model, J. Land Use Sci., 8(1), 104–122, doi:10.1080/1747423x.2011.628705, 2013.
  • YIBs Yue, X. and Unger, N.: The Yale Interactive terrestrial Biosphere model version 1.0: description , evaluation and implementation into NASA GISS, , 2399–2417, doi:10.5194/gmd-8-2399-2015, 2015.

GCB

GCB

1960
1980
2000
2020
0.5
1
1.5
2
2.5
3
3.5
4
GtC

Unit GtC/year

YearGCB
19590.3684
19601.0964
19610.8455
19621.3191
19630.8747
19641.5869
19650.3697
19661.4514
19671.5766
19682.3641
19690.7025
19700.6592
19712.2296
19721.1880
19731.5948
19743.7219
19752.4319
19762.9831
19771.2947
19782.5084
19791.1622
19800.3731
19812.1215
19821.5101
19830.2302
19842.6818
19852.5754
19862.3634
19870.5928
19881.9920
19893.4427
19902.3873
19912.1309
19922.4426
19933.0723
19941.5318
19951.8907
19963.4231
19973.1478
19981.4473
19993.5128
20003.8125
20012.5850
20021.3353
20032.5370
20043.6314
20052.0954
20063.0917
20072.8038
20083.4758
20092.8949
20103.3081
20114.1053
20122.4853
20133.5924
20143.7440
20152.2644
20162.9393
20173.6242
20183.4996
20193.0721
20203.0381
20213.5066
20223.8708
20232.3020

Individual Models

CABLE-POP

1960
1980
2000
2020
0
1
2
3
4
GtC

CLASSIC

1960
1980
2000
2020
-1
0
1
2
3
4
5
GtC

CLM6.0

1960
1980
2000
2020
1.5
2
2.5
3
3.5
4
4.5
5
GtC

DLEM

1960
1980
2000
2020
1
2
3
4
GtC

ED

1960
1980
2000
2020
1
2
3
4
5
GtC

ELM

1960
1980
2000
2020
-1
0
1
2
3
4
5
GtC

IBIS

1960
1980
2000
2020
-1
0
1
2
3
GtC

iMAPLE

1960
1980
2000
2020
1
2
3
4
5
GtC

ISAM

1960
1980
2000
2020
1
2
3
4
GtC

ISBA-CTRIP

1960
1980
2000
2020
0
0.5
1
1.5
2
2.5
3
3.5
GtC

JSBACH

1960
1980
2000
2020
0
1
2
3
4
GtC

JULES

1960
1980
2000
2020
0
1
2
3
4
GtC

LPJ-GUESS

1960
1980
2000
2020
-1
0
1
2
3
4
GtC

LPJml

1960
1980
2000
2020
0
1
2
3
4
GtC

LPJwsl

1960
1980
2000
2020
-2
-1
0
1
2
3
4
GtC

LPX

1960
1980
2000
2020
-1
0
1
2
3
GtC

OCN

1960
1980
2000
2020
1
2
3
4
GtC

Orchidee

1960
1980
2000
2020
0.5
1
1.5
2
2.5
3
GtC

SDGVM

1960
1980
2000
2020
0
1
2
3
GtC

VISIT

1960
1980
2000
2020
0
1
2
3
4
5
GtC

Multi-model mean

1960
1980
2000
2020
0.5
1
1.5
2
2.5
3
3.5
4
GtC

Model Spread (sd)

1960
1980
2000
2020
0.6
0.7
0.8
0.9
1
1.1
1.2
1.3
GtC

Unit GtC/year

YearCABLE-POPCLASSICCLM6.0DLEMEDELMIBISiMAPLEISAMISBA-CTRIPJSBACHJULESLPJ-GUESSLPJmlLPJwslLPXOCNOrchideeSDGVMVISITMulti-model meanModel Spread (sd)
1959−0.27000.30001.24000.50000.59000.61000.50000.40001.41000.91000.3700−0.3900−0.8100−0.0524−1.03000.25000.79000.47000.25001.33000.36840.6461
19602.12000.91001.93001.43000.83001.50000.96001.35001.26000.70002.10000.49000.70001.3985−0.25000.56001.00001.09000.42001.43001.09640.5934
19611.68000.73001.16001.21001.86000.91000.60001.22000.99000.88001.67000.56000.75000.0498−0.64000.39001.44000.8300−0.72001.34000.84550.6907
19622.03000.93001.78001.70001.50001.77001.03001.94001.48001.00002.17002.01001.40000.9925−0.12000.13001.69001.5100−0.71002.15001.31910.7823
19631.7400−0.24001.56001.13001.09001.82000.22001.21001.17000.55001.67001.6100−0.02000.2942−0.76000.19001.49000.8200−0.07002.02000.87470.8025
19642.26001.30002.29001.69001.26001.21001.33002.52001.82001.44002.10002.65002.20001.42730.18000.86001.78001.28000.74001.40001.58690.6278
19651.6800−0.97001.18000.67002.1000−0.59000.21001.15001.4800−0.14000.73001.4400−0.1800−0.5652−1.1700−1.26000.64000.7600−0.69000.92000.36971.0112
19661.82002.45001.42001.57001.81001.60000.59001.39001.52001.37002.51001.14001.54002.3475−0.02000.92001.53001.21001.17001.14001.45140.5970
19672.38000.47002.10002.04002.04001.63000.84002.42001.44000.99002.05002.24001.66001.41240.74001.20002.59001.02000.78001.49001.57660.6371
19682.42002.62002.95002.63002.22002.64000.87003.16002.29001.09001.97002.68003.62003.61122.11001.91002.82001.64001.53002.50002.36410.7319
19690.86000.35001.32000.27001.80000.4900−0.31001.60000.47000.48001.42000.91000.48000.72910.16000.73000.64000.79000.34000.52000.70250.5120
19701.32000.24001.64000.92001.83000.21000.36001.12000.73000.87001.50000.67000.05000.5341−0.86000.35000.72000.7600−0.48000.70000.65920.6640
19713.43003.07002.01002.99002.60002.2300−0.05002.94002.21001.46001.89003.75002.98002.90250.68001.31002.82001.72001.23002.42002.22960.9608
19721.44002.25001.34001.34002.29000.9100−1.17002.13000.91000.2900−0.12001.85002.06001.57000.54001.13001.73000.95000.45001.87001.18800.8796
19732.11003.30002.17001.86002.37000.36000.05002.63001.08001.25001.84001.42003.27002.4261−0.55000.82002.04001.24001.72000.49001.59481.0232
19744.94005.94003.49004.41003.17004.23000.53004.48003.60002.55004.53004.43004.68004.79862.11003.23004.16002.85002.41003.90003.72191.2231
19752.56003.33002.51002.68003.34002.87000.97003.07002.60001.74002.30003.05003.32002.81840.79002.03003.14001.59000.85003.08002.43190.8362
19763.45003.60003.68003.22003.47003.16000.88004.11002.75001.96001.87004.41003.18003.89123.03001.99003.73001.71001.57004.00002.98310.9878
19772.59002.40001.80000.41002.48001.0800−0.42001.70001.35000.52001.60001.57000.32001.28460.03001.32002.44000.89000.66001.87001.29470.8592
19784.02004.67002.46002.16002.63002.9700−0.57003.40002.68001.64003.64002.84003.02003.20710.66001.42002.72002.18002.13002.29002.50841.1573
19792.56001.35002.21000.85002.67000.3100−0.85001.91001.58000.70003.15001.10000.21001.1744−0.72000.33001.88001.03000.25001.55001.16221.0710
19802.3300−1.13001.55000.61002.2000−1.1100−0.49001.63001.49000.50001.70000.7800−1.0300−0.6481−2.4100−1.24001.07000.85000.03000.78000.37311.3166
19813.06003.18002.83002.99002.61002.59000.84002.81002.34001.76003.16002.14001.47002.1009−0.68000.72003.56002.09001.01001.85002.12151.0439
19822.54001.76002.56001.46003.21001.83000.57002.20002.02000.92000.94002.84001.43001.02290.04000.54001.89001.6400−0.56001.35001.51010.9487
19831.0200−0.86001.88000.63001.5300−0.4700−0.55001.86000.80000.22001.84000.3400−0.6100−0.9563−2.3200−1.39001.24000.66000.0500−0.31000.23021.1661
19843.53004.24003.25003.27002.71002.69002.06003.16002.72002.22002.93002.36003.45002.92660.65001.75003.07002.96000.60003.09002.68180.8941
19853.84003.05002.77002.70003.30003.09001.39003.42002.70001.66004.13002.62002.81002.55730.55001.27003.24002.37001.87002.17002.57540.8905
19862.52002.78003.56002.46003.30003.23001.11003.39002.68001.66002.86003.23002.52002.28840.87000.25003.15001.64001.69002.08002.36340.9144
19871.4400−0.42002.04000.47002.2500−0.33000.51001.81000.91000.14001.04000.3700−0.08000.1469−0.6500−0.48001.48000.9300−0.30000.58000.59280.8748
19882.94001.68002.93003.13002.59002.34001.60002.66002.41002.00003.69001.63000.96001.9207−0.93000.63003.01002.15001.32001.18001.99201.0532
19893.41004.97004.06004.53003.91005.53003.50004.01003.17002.93002.75002.73003.79003.26452.05002.51003.87002.63001.73003.51003.44270.9421
19901.53004.17003.72001.76003.57003.35002.18002.73001.92001.61002.40001.53002.77002.54601.87002.24002.85001.59001.38002.03002.38730.8137
19913.06002.71003.42002.21003.41002.53000.92002.90002.66001.42003.14003.15000.74001.71730.60000.51003.01002.16000.30002.05002.13091.0456
19923.84002.59003.94002.58003.42001.53002.02004.23002.72001.62002.07003.65003.12002.38242.32000.27002.96001.66000.89001.04002.44261.0810
19933.56003.37003.45003.26003.42003.48002.78004.27002.63001.89002.60002.55003.92003.57642.93001.67003.75002.56003.57002.21003.07230.6910
19942.25000.84002.46001.56003.00001.68001.35002.22002.50001.79001.78001.6000−0.59000.73560.02000.01002.30001.40001.86001.87001.53180.9228
19952.27001.01002.95001.97003.04002.72001.30002.72002.33001.38001.72001.21001.18001.86330.76000.35002.52001.72003.50001.30001.89070.8448
19964.31004.03003.75003.65004.06003.78002.86004.43002.88002.53002.43002.63004.93004.05162.81002.62003.28003.27002.86003.30003.42310.7236
19973.50004.81003.54003.18003.94004.22002.13003.39002.84002.19003.71002.31003.30003.65663.69003.14003.58001.72001.24002.87003.14780.8724
19981.34003.35002.97000.70002.81001.09000.57002.15001.33001.83003.3200−0.59000.34001.01500.28001.24001.78001.18000.54001.70001.44731.0628
19994.04003.17004.27004.27004.08004.83003.89004.07003.75003.13004.17002.64002.74003.30513.49002.48004.05002.82000.95004.11003.51280.8840
20004.11005.32003.93004.29004.14005.68003.57004.25003.95002.87004.03002.55003.35004.00013.79003.27004.31002.64002.04004.16003.81250.8713
20012.75003.08003.60002.56004.56002.94002.54003.27002.69002.29002.46002.33001.53002.26072.46001.29003.33001.58000.94003.24002.58500.8458
20021.81000.81002.98001.56004.11000.42001.84002.38001.68001.63001.04001.2600−0.38000.58650.9400−0.43002.03001.15000.34000.95001.33531.0729
20032.80001.92003.55003.03003.94001.53002.48003.52002.49002.81003.63001.96002.06002.91091.93001.01003.25002.04001.64002.24002.53700.7944
20044.29003.97004.41003.57004.62004.20002.64003.93003.45002.52004.26002.80004.92003.37703.91002.49004.17002.46002.46004.18003.63140.8055
20052.23002.07003.38002.01003.90002.74001.49002.72002.27001.96002.13001.48001.29001.67741.98000.62002.81001.84001.11002.20002.09540.7645
20063.72002.39003.89003.71004.36003.83001.99003.29003.01003.16002.60002.86002.39003.32332.92002.09003.83002.43002.75003.29003.09170.6625
20073.98002.48003.69003.04004.39003.74001.83003.43003.03002.21003.55002.39002.04002.75592.16000.94003.54002.11001.21003.56002.80380.9404
20084.40003.64003.38004.03005.02003.79002.74004.28003.88002.84004.02003.27004.34002.65573.18002.06004.29002.76000.94004.00003.47580.9505
20093.41002.83003.46002.98004.70002.33001.86003.79002.69002.42003.84002.57002.45002.99733.54001.81003.76001.85001.25003.36002.89490.8546
20103.68004.52004.26002.69004.01003.79000.50003.90002.65002.77004.91001.26004.09004.03173.39002.47003.78002.47003.31003.68003.30811.0821
20114.91004.52004.80004.15004.67004.75002.54004.47004.16003.65004.74003.58004.43004.59584.66002.80004.91002.91001.73005.13004.10530.9357
20123.13001.23003.92002.67004.65001.82002.01003.39003.10002.88002.52002.17000.93002.80642.16000.98003.42001.73000.72003.47002.48531.0592
20134.21004.04004.16003.64004.94003.34003.15004.65003.14003.39004.80002.38003.59003.90903.90002.43003.80002.50002.48003.40003.59240.7722
20144.14004.47004.40003.55005.73004.27002.25004.19003.74003.40003.18002.61004.14004.13034.61002.66004.72002.06002.48004.15003.74400.9544
20152.29001.73003.99001.93004.92002.32000.87003.23002.84002.07001.74001.76000.73001.77872.73000.46003.68001.44001.80002.98002.26441.1164
20162.88003.85004.33003.03004.17002.42001.79004.12001.99003.29003.46000.68002.39002.97603.23002.03004.28002.15003.46002.26002.93930.9745
20174.30004.14004.32003.61005.38004.01002.16004.44003.41003.34003.73002.78003.45003.49333.53002.22004.16002.99002.91004.11003.62420.7801
20183.53002.62003.60003.94005.81003.28001.65004.71003.72003.46004.58002.72003.51003.42173.62002.13004.34002.59002.71004.05003.49960.9579
20193.27002.51004.55002.88005.28003.04001.82004.16003.14002.51004.28002.62003.30002.51103.45001.35004.06001.83001.77003.11003.07211.0228
20203.71002.98004.64003.14004.90004.20001.23003.69003.80002.93004.45001.81002.16002.82172.39001.18004.15002.03001.40003.15003.03811.1534
20214.80003.66004.67003.95005.26004.17001.92004.33003.69003.94004.23002.45002.78003.10222.59001.49004.02002.92001.81004.35003.50661.0666
20223.66003.70005.15004.63005.15003.32002.67005.01004.83003.89004.27002.99002.87003.86603.65002.25004.86002.75003.30004.60003.87080.9059
20232.17001.09004.01002.09004.33002.26000.72003.15002.91002.45002.26000.96001.56002.02082.14001.74003.67001.19001.87003.45002.30201.0147