Global Carbon Budget 2021

A newer version of this dataset is available. The latest version available on Openclimatedata is 2024.

Published: March 21, 2022

Citation: Friedlingstein et al., Global Carbon Budget 2021. https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-14-1917-2022

Data: Global Carbon Project. (2021). Supplemental data of Global Carbon Budget 2021 (Version 1.0) [Data set]. Global Carbon Project. https://doi.org/10.18160/gcp-2021

Changelog:
  • 2020 total anthropogenic CO₂ emissions: 10.2 ± 0.8 GtC/year (37.4 ± 2.9 GtCO₂/year)
  • in 2020 fossil emissions declined by 5.4% relative to 2019, reduced to 9.5 ± 0.5 GtC/year (34.8 ± 1.8 GtCO₂/year) with cement carbonation excluded
  • 2020 global atmospheric CO₂ concentration: 412.45 ± 0.1 ppm
  • compared to earlier estimates revised land-use change emissions show decrease in last decade

Ocean CO₂ sink (positive values represent a flux from the atmosphere to the ocean)

All values in billion tonnes of carbon per year (GtC/yr), for the globe. For values in billion tonnes of carbon dioxide per year (GtCO₂/yr), multiply the numbers below by 3.664.
1 billion tonnes C = 1 petagram of carbon (10^15 gC) = 1 gigatonne C = 3.664 billion tonnes of CO₂
Methods: The ocean sink (uncertainty of ±0.4 GtC/yr on average) is estimated from the average of 8 global ocean biogeochemistry models and 7 fCO₂ data products that reproduce the observed mean ocean sink of the 1990s. Watson et al. 92020) not used for the fCO₂ data produtcs average. Cite as: Friedlingstein et al (2021; see summary tab)
Note: a pre-industrial steady state source of CO₂ from rivers (of about 0.61 GtC/yr) was added to the data products to make them comparable to the ocean model results
Cite individual estimates as:
Model results used to compute the annual values:
  • CESM_ETH Doney, S. C., Lima, I., Feely, R. A., Glover, D. M., Lindsay, K., Mahowald, N., Moore, J. K., and Wanninkhof, R.: Mech- anisms governing interannual variability in upper-ocean inor- ganic carbon system and air–sea CO₂ fluxes: Physical cli- mate and atmospheric dust, Deep-Sea Res. Pt. II, 56, 640–655, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.dsr2.2008.12.006, 2009.
  • FESOM-2-REcoM2 Hauck, J., Zeising, M., Le Quéré, C., Gruber, N., Bakker, D. C. E., Bopp, L., et al. (2020). Consistency and Challenges in the Ocean Carbon Sink Estimate for the Global Carbon Budget. Frontiers in Marine Science, 7. https://doi.org/10.3389/fmars.2020.571720
  • NEMO3.6-PISCESv2-gas (CNRM) Berthet, S., Séférian, R., Bricaud, C., Chevallier, M., Voldoire, A., & Ethé, C. ( 2019). Evaluation of an online grid‐coarsening algorithm in a global eddy‐admitting ocean biogeochemical model. Journal of Advances in Modeling Earth Systems, 11, 1759– 1783. https://doi.org/10.1029/2019MS001644
  • NEMO-PISCES (IPSL) Aumont, O., Ethé, Tagliabue, A., Bopp, L., & Gehlen, M. (2015). PISCES-v2: an ocean biogeochemical model for carbon and ecosystem studies.
  • NEMO-PlankTOM12 Wright, R. M., Le Quéré, C., Buitenhuis, E., Pitois, S., & Gibbons, M. J. (2021). Role of jellyfish in the plankton ecosystem revealed using a global ocean biogeochemical model. Biogeosciences, 18(4), 1291-1320. https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-18-1291-2021
  • NorESM-OC Schwinger, J., Goris, N., Tjiputra, J. F., Kriest, I., Bentsen, M., Bethke, I., Ilicak, M., Assmann, K. M., and Heinze, C.: Evaluation of NorESM-OC (versions 1 and 1.2), the ocean carbon-cycle stand-alone configuration of the Norwegian Earth System Model (NorESM1), Geosci. Model Dev., 9, 2589-2622, 2016.
  • MOM6-COBALT (Princeton) Liao, E., Resplandy, L., Liu, J. and Bowman, K. W.: Amplification of the Ocean Carbon Sink During El Niños: Role of Poleward Ekman Transport and Influence on Atmospheric CO 2, Global Biogeochem. Cycles, 34(9), doi:10.1029/2020GB006574, 2020.
  • MPIOM-HAMOCC6 Lacroix F., Tatiana Ilyina, Moritz Mathis, Goulven Laruelle, Pierre Regnier: Historical Increases in Land-Derived Nutrient Inputs May Alleviate Effects from a Changing Physical Climate on the Oceanic Carbon Cycle. Global Change Biology, https://doi.org/10.1111/gcb.15822, 2021
Data products used to evaluate the results:
  • Landschützer Landschützer, P., Gruber, N., and Bakker, D. C. E.: Decadal variations and trends of the global ocean carbon sink, Global Biogeochem. Cy., 30, 1396–1417, https://doi.org/10.1002/2015GB005359, 2016
  • Rödenbeck Rödenbeck, C., Bakker, D. C. E., Metzl, N., Olsen, A., Sabine, C., Cassar, N., Reum, F., Keeling, R. F., and Heimann, M.: Interannual sea–air CO₂ flux variability from an observation-driven ocean mixed-layer scheme, Biogeosciences, 11, 4599-4613, 2014.
  • CMEMS Chau, T. T. T., Gehlen, M., and Chevallier, F.: A seamless ensemble-based reconstruction of surface ocean pCO₂ and air–sea CO₂ fluxes over the global coastal and open oceans, Biogeosciences Discuss. https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-2021-207, 2021.
  • CSIR-ML6 Gregor, L., Lebehot, A. D., Kok, S. and Scheel Monteiro, P. M.: A comparative assessment of the uncertainties of global surface ocean CO₂ estimates using a machine-learning ensemble (CSIR-ML6 version 2019a)-Have we hit the wall?, Geosci. Model Dev., 12(12), 5113–5136, doi:10.5194/gmd-12-5113-2019, 2019.
  • Watson et al. Watson, A. J., Schuster, U., Shutler, J. D., Holding, T., Ashton, I. G. C., Landschützer, P., Woolf, D. K. and Goddijn-Murphy, L.: Revised estimates of ocean-atmosphere CO₂ flux are consistent with ocean carbon inventory, Nat. Commun., 11(1), 1–6, doi:10.1038/s41467-020-18203-3, 2020.
  • NIES-NN Zeng, J., Nojiri, Y., Landschützer, P., Telszewski, M., Nakaoka, S.: A Global Surface Ocean fCO₂ Climatology Based on a Feed-Forward Neural Network. Journal of Atmospheric and Oceanic Technology 31, 1838–1849. https://doi.org/10.1175/JTECH-D-13-00137.1, 2014.
  • JMA-MLR Iida, Y., Takatani, Y., Kojima, A., and Ishii, M.: Global trends of ocean CO₂ sink and ocean acidification: an observation-based reconstruction of surface ocean inorganic carbon variables. J. Oceanogr. 77, 323–358. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10872-020-00571-5, 2021
  • OS-ETHZ-GRaCER Gregor, L. and Gruber, N.: OceanSODA-ETHZ: a global gridded data set of the surface ocean carbonate system for seasonal to decadal studies of ocean acidification, Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 13, 777–808, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-13-777-2021, 2021.

GCB

GCB

1960
1980
2000
2020
1
1.5
2
2.5
GtC

1 sigma uncertainty

1960
1980
2000
2020
0.4
GtC

Unit GtC/year

YearGCB1 sigma uncertainty
19590.91800.4000
19600.89910.4000
19610.75410.4000
19620.80040.4000
19630.98110.4000
19641.17630.4000
19651.27090.4000
19661.23990.4000
19671.10550.4000
19681.11330.4000
19691.19700.4000
19701.09200.4000
19711.14690.4000
19721.38610.4000
19731.34030.4000
19741.26240.4000
19751.20600.4000
19761.33040.4000
19771.44830.4000
19781.49430.4000
19791.40660.4000
19801.66680.4000
19811.66690.4000
19821.81580.4000
19831.95490.4000
19841.84040.4000
19851.72340.4000
19861.75400.4000
19871.85000.4000
19881.76800.4000
19891.73820.4000
19901.91760.4000
19912.00380.4000
19922.16760.4000
19932.11830.4000
19941.97650.4000
19951.95080.4000
19961.95210.4000
19972.06890.4000
19982.13550.4000
19991.94800.4000
20001.87140.4000
20011.79160.4000
20022.12970.4000
20032.26580.4000
20042.21100.4000
20052.24540.4000
20062.34610.4000
20072.31720.4000
20082.30710.4000
20092.44840.4000
20102.44060.4000
20112.49020.4000
20122.55020.4000
20132.60180.4000
20142.72100.4000
20152.78510.4000
20162.93420.4000
20172.83920.4000
20182.90770.4000
20192.97400.4000
20202.99490.4000

Individual Models

CESM-ETH

1960
1980
2000
2020
1
1.5
2
2.5
GtC

FESOM2-RECOM2

1960
1980
2000
2020
1
1.5
2
2.5
GtC

MOM6-COBALT (Princeton)

1960
1980
2000
2020
0.5
1
1.5
2
GtC

MPIOM-HAMOCC

1960
1980
2000
2020
0.6
0.8
1
1.2
1.4
1.6
1.8
2
2.2
GtC

NEMO-PISCES (CNRM)

1960
1980
2000
2020
0.5
1
1.5
2
GtC

NEMO-PISCES (IPSL)

1960
1980
2000
2020
1
1.5
2
2.5
GtC

NEMO-PlankTOM12

1960
1980
2000
2020
1
1.5
2
2.5
GtC

NorESM-OC

1960
1980
2000
2020
1
1.5
2
2.5
3
GtC

Multi-model mean

1960
1980
2000
2020
1
1.5
2
2.5
GtC

Model Spread (sd)

1960
1980
2000
2020
0.24
0.26
0.28
0.3
0.32
0.34
GtC

Unit GtC/year

YearCESM-ETHFESOM2-RECOM2MOM6-COBALT (Princeton)MPIOM-HAMOCCNEMO-PISCES (CNRM)NEMO-PISCES (IPSL)NEMO-PlankTOM12NorESM-OCMulti-model meanModel Spread (sd)
19590.93031.08000.34100.67000.59000.81170.93001.08470.80470.2577
19600.88221.07000.48700.65000.53000.69150.92001.05580.78580.2277
19610.61270.93000.30900.55000.43000.57130.74000.98300.64080.2327
19620.72390.93000.38100.63000.23000.60110.85001.15050.68710.2964
19630.86580.98000.58700.79000.49000.80091.10001.32890.86780.2702
19640.97671.27000.80900.97000.79000.96071.30001.42771.06300.2383
19651.06691.18000.80700.97000.98001.05051.60001.60671.15760.2945
19661.05911.21000.82500.92000.90000.94031.55001.60831.12660.3030
19670.82911.16000.64600.91000.77000.83001.36001.43210.99220.2893
19680.98271.08000.77200.89000.61000.92981.24001.49521.00000.2753
19691.07291.12000.93400.85000.72000.96961.40001.60321.08370.2912
19700.88381.15000.81800.83000.76000.79941.10001.48870.97870.2510
19710.96521.21000.89701.03000.61000.82921.19001.53721.03360.2813
19721.34691.30001.15801.04000.90001.18901.46001.78851.27280.2727
19731.13791.36001.14201.04000.98001.00881.30001.84711.22700.2844
19740.91881.34001.00001.08000.78000.97861.30001.79511.14910.3211
19750.83981.18000.87001.19000.72000.83841.36001.74301.09260.3440
19761.12101.25001.03401.14000.76000.98821.55001.89341.21710.3544
19771.23131.35001.14501.25000.99001.14801.61001.95601.33500.3093
19781.33311.49001.16501.28001.07001.21771.59001.90211.38100.2698
19791.24371.33001.07701.06001.11001.16751.61001.74821.29330.2568
19801.55541.76001.38701.31001.34001.45731.58002.03841.55350.2450
19811.54701.78001.40601.37001.32001.40711.54002.05831.55350.2501
19821.74761.86001.51701.48001.39001.54691.95002.12851.70250.2606
19831.92812.02001.72001.44001.62001.73671.96002.30781.84160.2691
19841.54001.92001.54101.59001.54001.48651.94002.25921.72710.2795
19851.48041.74001.30201.54001.28001.37631.92002.24221.61010.3365
19861.47351.83001.35901.53001.30001.48611.84002.30741.64070.3337
19871.68321.82001.48001.48001.65001.65591.88002.24481.73670.2491
19881.61571.94001.51801.50001.38001.52571.60002.15831.65470.2603
19891.44671.79001.38601.65001.22001.38541.84002.28131.62490.3412
19901.60681.88001.53201.60001.46001.55521.94002.30411.73480.2855
19911.79811.98001.75301.58001.62001.62501.97002.34371.83370.2567
19922.01932.14001.97701.94001.95001.83482.20002.59282.08170.2366
19931.90122.17001.88801.89001.83001.86462.14002.58542.03370.2574
19941.68232.03001.69101.67001.66001.71441.85002.43591.84170.2714
19951.73342.10001.75901.64001.54001.78421.72002.34331.82750.2632
19961.71352.12001.80201.66001.56001.73401.86002.26111.83880.2377
19971.93592.04001.91001.58001.68001.94381.99002.35031.92870.2324
19982.01802.36002.07701.50001.96002.01362.17002.38322.06020.2763
19991.58822.21001.72701.81001.55001.55342.19002.42221.88130.3439
20001.53002.01001.58801.80001.35001.59311.98002.40371.78190.3384
20011.51091.84001.51401.60001.27001.59291.95002.30871.69830.3228
20021.99312.28001.96101.84001.49002.02272.05002.53642.02170.3053
20032.14192.31002.12801.88001.89001.98252.16002.66542.14470.2564
20042.00462.22001.93301.89001.74001.92232.14002.56522.05190.2553
20052.11352.34002.05301.83001.79002.02211.99002.59212.09130.2642
20062.14622.39002.16301.99001.78002.05192.34002.70852.19620.2831
20072.09662.50002.15201.97001.82002.11172.14002.62942.17750.2651
20081.98862.32002.08002.06001.70001.96152.32002.74592.14700.3139
20092.12892.30002.13901.96001.88002.07132.33002.63652.18070.2390
20102.12162.39002.18001.93001.97002.09102.21002.62002.18910.2255
20112.05262.61002.23102.10001.83002.12082.42002.80362.27100.3199
20122.23332.43002.22602.06002.05002.22062.56002.95332.34170.3009
20132.28442.58002.26302.12002.03002.23042.50002.95182.37000.2966
20142.31632.68002.32002.31002.15002.39022.75003.01132.49100.2909
20152.45632.67002.28002.33002.25002.44002.83003.10742.54550.3013
20162.53872.94002.44602.30002.41002.52982.73003.06392.61980.2681
20172.24052.68002.28602.31002.16002.22962.74003.01242.45730.3107
20182.35122.78002.27902.27002.01002.30942.82002.99662.47700.3430
20192.38252.75002.41002.21002.27002.15922.64003.04992.48390.3065
20202.26472.76002.46002.39002.32001.97902.60002.97652.46880.3093

Data-based Products

CMEMS

1960
1980
2000
2020
2
2.2
2.4
2.6
2.8
3
3.2
3.4
GtC

CSIR

1960
1980
2000
2020
1.8
2
2.2
2.4
2.6
2.8
3
3.2
3.4
3.6
GtC

Gracer

1960
1980
2000
2020
2.2
2.4
2.6
2.8
3
3.2
GtC

Iida

1960
1980
2000
2020
2.4
2.6
2.8
3
3.2
3.4
3.6
3.8
GtC

Landschutzer

1960
1980
2000
2020
1.6
1.8
2
2.2
2.4
2.6
2.8
3
3.2
GtC

Rodenbeck

1960
1980
2000
2020
1.6
1.8
2
2.2
2.4
2.6
2.8
3
3.2
GtC

Watson

1960
1980
2000
2020
2.2
2.4
2.6
2.8
3
3.2
3.4
3.6
3.8
GtC

Zeng

1960
1980
2000
2020
2
2.5
3
3.5
4
GtC

Average data-products (excl. Watson.)

1960
1980
2000
2020
2
2.2
2.4
2.6
2.8
3
3.2
3.4
GtC

sd data-products (excl. Watson.)

1960
1980
2000
2020
0.15
0.2
0.25
0.3
0.35
0.4
0.45
GtC

Unit GtC/year

YearCMEMSCSIRGracerIidaLandschutzerRodenbeckWatsonZengAverage data-products (excl. Watson.)sd data-products (excl. Watson.)
1959----------
1960----------
1961----------
1962----------
1963----------
1964----------
1965----------
1966----------
1967----------
1968----------
1969----------
1970----------
1971----------
1972----------
1973----------
1974----------
1975----------
1976----------
1977----------
1978----------
1979----------
1980----------
1981----------
1982----------
1983----------
1984----------
1985----------
1986----------
1987----------
1988----------
1989----------
19901.85041.79172.18503.12501.96501.74502.52252.04102.10040.4766
19911.93411.90632.26503.07502.05501.99502.52251.98702.17390.4144
19921.95512.00002.39502.93502.08502.52502.68741.87892.25340.3830
19932.07022.03122.42502.82502.11502.20502.67711.74932.20300.3408
19942.10162.03122.32502.76502.03501.81502.56371.70612.11130.3505
19952.09121.95832.27502.72501.84501.87502.49151.74932.07410.3355
19962.05981.98962.32502.65501.82501.86502.41931.73852.06540.3229
19972.23772.10412.44502.74502.03502.24502.58431.65212.20910.3407
19982.15402.13542.34502.78501.77502.43502.51211.84652.21080.3487
19991.97601.84382.13502.64501.52502.05502.09971.92222.01460.3397
20001.97601.89592.13502.43501.55501.91502.12031.81411.96090.2732
20011.95511.86462.11502.39501.56501.48502.08941.81411.88480.3124
20022.16442.18742.41502.59501.92502.44502.39871.93302.23780.2584
20032.21682.29162.40502.82502.19502.74502.51212.03022.38690.2951
20042.19592.30202.40502.75502.18502.68502.56372.06262.37010.2622
20052.26912.38532.49502.80502.29502.36502.65652.18142.39940.2043
20062.38432.49982.57502.90502.41502.42502.87302.26792.49600.2040
20072.36342.51032.55502.82502.40502.17502.89362.36512.45700.2030
20082.35292.51032.48502.74502.49502.28502.98642.39752.46720.1479
20092.54132.78102.84502.85502.76502.78503.24422.44072.71610.1600
20102.56232.79142.77502.83502.64502.65503.15142.58112.69210.1079
20112.49952.80182.80502.78502.75502.69503.21332.62442.70940.1133
20122.54132.82272.87502.84502.89502.66503.38852.66762.75880.1341
20132.63562.89562.93502.98502.77502.71503.47102.89442.83360.1275
20142.75073.03093.03503.07502.86502.99503.50202.90522.95100.1157
20152.98103.07263.06503.27503.06502.62503.55353.08893.02460.1975
20163.07533.33293.17503.52503.14503.09503.70823.39143.24850.1701
20173.06483.29133.16503.43503.07502.98503.83193.53183.22110.2049
20183.12763.43713.29503.47503.17503.16503.90413.69393.33840.2073
20193.36843.66623.39503.66503.20503.12503.80103.82353.46400.2603
20203.49403.63493.26503.85503.16503.20503.50204.02873.52110.3355